基于SDA模型的中国碳排放驱动因素分解研究

Research on decomposition of driving factors of China’s carbon emission based on SDA model

全球变暖已经引起广泛的关注,降低碳排放的关键是减少化石能源的消费,客观准确的找出碳排放量变化的驱动因素是制定碳排放政策的关键。基于2002、2007、2012、2017年投入产出表,利用结构分解模型(SDA)对中国碳排放量变化进行研究,从能源结构效应、碳强度效应、投入产出技术效应和总量效应4个方面对碳排放量变化进行分解,得到结论:4个驱动因素共同作用于中国碳排放量变化,不同行业对各个效应的贡献度呈现出明显的差异性。

Global warming has attracted widespread attention.The key to reducing carbon emissions is to reduce the consumption of fossil energy.Finding out the driving factors of changes in carbon emissions objectively and accurately is the key to formulating carbon emissions policies.Based on the 2002,2007,2012,and 2017 input-output tables,the structural decomposition model(SDA)was used to study the changes in China’s carbon emissions.The changes in carbon emissions are decomposed from four aspects of energy structure effect,carbon intensity effect,input-output technology effect,and total effect.And the conclusions obtained include four driving factors that act together to change China’s carbon emissions,and the contribution of different industries to each effect shows obvious differences.