我国碳排放增长的驱动因素分解——基于LMDI模型

Driving factors for the growth of China’s carbon emissions based on LMDI model

在引入指标分解和扩展的Kaya恒等式分析框架的基础上,将我国碳排放变化的驱动因素分为人口规模效应、经济发展效应、产业结构效应、技术进步效应以及能源结构效应5个部分。通过测算建立了我国长时间序列碳排放数据(2004—2016年),并从国家级、区域级和省市级3个层面分别探讨了各驱动因素的碳排放变动效应。结果表明,经济发展效应是促进我国碳排放增长最主要的驱动因素;而产业结构效应、技术进步效应是抑制我国碳排放增长的两个驱动因素;人口规模效应促进了我国碳排放的增长,能源结构效应抑制了我国碳排放的增长,但这两个驱动因素的影响力相对较小。此外,利用混合回归模型对上述结果进行了检验,验证了分析的合理性。最后,基于实证结果,提出了针对性的建议用于解决我国的碳排放问题。

Based on the introduction of the index decomposition and expansion of the Kaya identity analysis framework,the driving factors of China’s carbon emissions change are divided into five parts,including population size effect,economic development effect,industrial structure effect,technological progress effect and energy structure effect.Through calculation,a longterm series of carbon emissions data(2004—2016)is established in China,and the effects of various drivers on carbon emissions were discussed from three levels:national,regional,and provincial and municipal levels.The results show that the economic development effect is the most important driving factor for promoting China’s carbon emission growth,while the industrial structure effect and technological progress effect are the two driving factors for inhibiting China’s carbon emission growth.And the population size effect promotes the growth of China’s carbon emissions,the energy structure effect suppresses the growth of China’s carbon emissions,but these two driving factors have relatively little influence.In addition,the above results were tested using a mixed regression model to verify the rationality of the analysis.Finally,based on the empirical results,targeted suggestions are put forward for solving China’s carbon emission problems.