重大突发公共卫生事件对煤炭开采业影响路径与评估

Influence path and evaluation of major public health emergencies on coal mining industry

新冠疫情对我国经济造成巨大影响,煤炭开采业也受到一定冲击,对其影响路径的分析有助于制定政策应对疫情。从宏观和微观角度,通过对煤炭产业链、煤炭价格、煤炭运输、企业微观生产与运作等影响路径进行剖析发现:随着疫情得到控制,煤炭供给全面恢复,而其下游产业复工复产延迟导致煤炭短期需求锐减;煤炭进口受疫情影响短期暴增,随着供给恢复未来进口量将下降;煤炭价格受短期内供过于求影响持续走低,形势不容乐观;微观上,疫情并未对煤炭生产与运作造成严重影响,且对煤炭企业复工复产影响逐步缓解,但宏观形势倒逼煤炭生产企业调整生产计划和开展中长期订单合同管理,有序释放产能。

COVID-19 has severe impacts on China’s economy,and the coal mining industry has also been impacted.Impact assessment is of great importance to implement corresponding countermeasures to deal with the epidemic.Through the analysis on the main coal supply chain,coal price and import,domestic coal transportation,enterprise production and operations management,the macro and micro results suggest that the coal supply side recovered quickly along with the recovery in production,and the resumption delay in the downstream industry is the main reason for the imbalance between coal supply and demand.The second reason is the short-term coal import by the epidemic.With this background,coal prices continue to fall on the back of stronger supply and weaker demand.On a micro level,the outbreak has not seriously affected the coal enterprise’s production and operations,and the mining activities are back to the normal situation in the mid-March.However,the current pandemic requires the whole coal mining industry to adjust their short-term production plan and develop long-term contract management and intelligent coal mining system.