中国神黄铁路运煤专线开通对地区产业结构的影响——基于DID模型的实证研究

Impact of China Shenhuang Railway dedicated coal line on regional industrial structure——Empirical research based on DID model

以中国神黄铁路运煤专线为对象,研究其全线开通对地区产业结构的影响,试图回答新开通的铁路运煤专线在改变了煤炭资源空间配置的同时,是否改变了地区产业结构由第一产业为主向第二产业为主,再向第三产业为主转型的演变趋势,是否存在高耗能行业替代低耗能行业,从而形成了产业结构转型的反向驱动力。通过采用双重差分模型(Difference in Differences Model)方法进行实证研究,得到结论:神黄铁路运煤专线的全线开通对地区第一产业发展带来显著的负向影响,对地区第二产业发展带来显著的正向影响,对第三产业的影响并不显著,为2019年开通的浩吉铁路可能带来的地区宏观影响提供借鉴和参考,对国家和地区合理配置煤炭资源、理性应对产业结构调整提供依据。

Taking the China Shenhuang Railway special line for coal transportation as an object,the impact of the opening of the entire line on the regional industrial structure was studied,trying to answer whether the newly opened railway coal transportation special line has changed the evolution trend of the regional industrial structure from the primary industry to the secondary industry and then to the tertiary industry while changing the spatial distribution of coal resources,and whether there is a high energy consumption industry replacing the low energy consumption industry,thus forming the reverse driving force of the industrial structure transformation.By using the method of difference in differences model,it is concluded that the opening of the whole line of Shenzhou Huanghua railway coal transportation special line has a significant negative impact on the development of the first industry,a significant positive impact on the development of the second industry,and no significant impact on the third industry,It will provide reference for the possible regional macro impact of the Haoji railway opened in2019,and provide basis for the country and region to reasonably allocate coal resources and rationally respond to the adjustment of industrial structure.