基于可拓理论的煤矿安全风险预警与评估

Coal mine safety risk early warning and assessment based on extension theory

为了加强煤矿危险源风险判识,实现煤矿企业的安全生产预警管理,从人员、设备、环境、管理及信息五个方面建立煤矿风险预警指标体系,并依据相关标准、规程确定预警等级及临界值,构建基于可拓理论的风险预警评估模型。采用熵权法确定各预警指标的权重,避免传统经验的主观性,并使用Matlab软件对可拓理论的关联函数进行定量计算。以贵州省黔西县L煤矿为例进行工程应用,该煤矿综合安全风险预警等级为Ⅱ级,对应"低警"状态,其风险程度较弱,与实际情况相一致。该煤矿企业总体的风险程度表示可以接受,但还需进行进一步优化。研究表明该理论及方法可以为煤矿安全风险预警与评估提供参考依据。

In order to strengthen risk identification of coal mine hazards and realize early warning management of coal mine safety production,a coal mine risk early warning index system is established considering the factors of personnel,equipment,environment,management and information.The early warning grade and critical value are determined according to relevant standards and regulations,and a risk early warning evaluation model based on extension theory is constructed.Entropy weight method is used to determine the weight of each early warning index,to avoid the subjectivity of traditional experience,and MATLAB software is used to calculate the correlation function of extension theory quantitatively.Taking L Coal Mine in Qianxi County of Guizhou Province as an example,the engineering application shows that the comprehensive safety risk warning level of this coal mine is II,corresponding to the"low warning"state,and its risk degree is weak,which is consistent with the actual situation.The overall risk level of the coal mine enterprise is acceptable,but further optimization is needed.The research shows that the theory and method can provide reference for coal mine safety risk early warning and evaluation.