2022年美国中期选举的政治意义及战略影响

The 2022 U.S.Midterm Election and its Implications for Sino-U.S.Relations

2022年美国中期选举结果一定程度上是2020年“失败的大选”的延续。这场选举既未出现外界预期的“红色浪潮”,民主党也未能守住众议院,两党政治极化、社会深度撕裂、两种政治路线势均力敌的局面在中选之后没有明显改变。而新的府会分治的格局进一步强化了“两个美国”之间的对抗,随着新一轮大选临近,两党恶斗将重新成为美国政治的主轴。拜登执政地位弱化,未来两年国内施政面临诸多掣肘,将更多在外交政策上发力,在拜登国家安全战略明晰的大背景下,美国外交政策将主要围绕和中国的大国竞争来展开。掌控众议院的共和党将把“特朗普主义”带回国会的内政外交议程中,并试图完成特朗普时期未完成的对华“大战略”。鉴于对华强硬是当前美国政治生态中两党为数不多的共识,未来两年,两党在对华政策上“交易”“比硬”“合流”这三大趋势将更加明显,中美关系陷入一场“新冷战”的风险将持续加大。

The results of the U.S.midterm election in 2022 are to some extent a continuation of the 2022“failed presidential election”.An expected“red wave”didn't happen,and the Democratic Party lost control of the House of Representatives.The bipartisan political polarization,the deepened social divides,and the evenly matched situation between two political courses have not been changed significantly after the election,whereas the pattern of a new“divided government”has further strengthened the confrontation between“two Americas”.With a new round of presidential election approaching,vicious partisan fights will act as a main subject of the U.S.politics again.Biden's ruling will be weaken,where his governance would face various constraints therefore he has to pay more efforts on foreign policies.Against the backdrop of Biden's clear national security strategy,the U.S.foreign policy will mainly revolve around great power competition with China,and the Republican Party who controls the House of Representatives will bring back“Trumpism”to the Congress'domestic and foreign policy agendas with an attempt to complete the unfinished“grand strategy”towards China during the Trump administration.In view of the fact that being“tough-on-China”is one of the few consensuses between two parties in the current U.S.political environment,in the next two years,three major trends of“bargaining”“racing to be tougher”and“convergence”in two parties’China policies will become more obvious,and the Sino-U.S.relations'risk of falling into a“new cold war”will continue to increase.