脆弱的多数?从2022年中期选举看美国政治极化与去极化

A Fragile Majority?American Political Polarization and Depolarization in the 2022 Midterm Elections

2022年中期选举是美国政治极化趋势下的一次选举。民主党在参议院以微弱多数获胜,共和党则成功在众议院翻盘,但从结果看,两党多数优势都极为有限。选举结果表明,一方面,支撑两党胜选的力量有其脆弱性;另一方面,鉴于两党呈现的差异度,中期选举体现的部分美国政治去极化力量也极为有限。就特征而言,2022年中期选举折射出两党异质化程度加深、政党内部极化趋势增强、族裔党派偏好出现小范围转向,以及有限的民主回摆与民粹回落趋势。而意识形态、身份政治、经济和文化因素的叠加共振,以及民主政体有限纠偏能力驱动的“中间力量”构成极化与去极化的动因。未来,美国政治中的极化与去极化力量同时存在,然而极化仍为大势。政治极化对美国内外政策将产生多重影响,去极化影响则主要体现在政治精英与大众选民的政治倾向方面。

The U.S.was experiencing a trend of increasing political polarization at the time of the 2022 midterm elections.Both parties enjoyed very slim majority advantages,as evidenced by the tight victories of the Democrats in the Senate and the Republicans in the House of Representatives.The election results demonstrate the fragility of the forces bolstering the successes of the two parties on the one hand,and the extreme limits of some of the forces of depolarization in American politics as exemplified by the midterm elections on the other.The midterm elections of 2022 show a minor democratic swing and populist retreat,expanding bipartisan heterogeneity,rising intra-party conflict,a small shift in ethnic Partisan preferences,and also more.The forces behind polarization and depolarization are a confluence of ideological,identity-political,economic,and cultural variables,as well as the“middle ground”fostered by democracies’constrained potential for corrective action.Future American politics will coexist with polarizing and depolarizing forces,but polarization will continue to be the dominant tendency.While political depolarization will primarily affect the political choices of political elites and the general public,political polarization will also have many effects on U.S.domestic and foreign policies.