常态、非常态与新常态:2022年中期选举与美国政治的发展态势

Normalcy,Abnormalities,and the New Normal:Understanding Trends in American Politics from the 2022 Midterm Elections

作为一场承上启下的关键性选举,美国2022年中期选举不仅重塑了从全国到地方的权力格局,还从不同维度联结了2020年与2024年两次总统大选。阐释本次选举中美国政治呈现出的一些重要发展态势,既有助于考察2020年白宫权力更迭以来美国政治的动向,也有利于观察2024年新一轮选举周期开启后美国政治的走向。将本次选举置于美国选举政治的连续过程中加以解读,可以发现当前美国政治中三种互相联系又彼此区别的发展态势:首先,反特朗普、反极端政治力量正尝试推动美国民主“回归常态”;其次,特朗普继续以“非常态”的形式影响共和党与美国政治;最后,价值与身份议题重要性的不断凸显以及极化作用下美国政治的日益“钙化”,正成为美国政治的新常态。

As a critical election that connects the past and sets the stage for the future,the 2022 U.S.midterm elections have not only reshaped the balance of power at both national and local levels,but also linked the 2020 and.2024 presidential elections from various dimensions.Interpreting those significant developments in American politics that revealed themselves during this election helps to examine the trends in American politics since the transfer of power in the White House in 2020 and also to observe the direction of American politics after the launching of the new cycle of elections in 2024.By placing the 2022 midterm elections in the context of the continuous transformation of American electoral politics,three interrelated yet distinct trends in current American politics can be identified:first,anti-Trump and.anti-extremist political forces have been trying to push American democracy in a“return to normalcy”;second,Trump continues to influence the Republican Party and American politics in an“abnormal”way;finally,the growing importance of values and identity issues and the increasing“calcification”of American politics as a result of long-term polarization are becoming the“new normal”in American politics.