增长南方:2020年大选中的佐治亚州个案初探

Growth South:A Preliminary Case Study of Georgia State in the 2020 U.S.Elections

在2020年美国大选中,民主党在佐治亚州获得了总统选举以及国会参众两院选举等层面出人意料的胜利。民主党在佐治亚州的胜利是近年来持续积累的结果,但也仅与共和党形成了势均力敌的状态,并未达到历史最佳状态。究其原因,佐治亚州非洲裔等少数族裔选民的增长态势,亚特兰大城区与城郊地区等城市圈的扩展态势等长期因素,特朗普政府极端议程及其对疫情防控不力等对共和党选民不同程度的抑制等中短期因素,以及某些突发因素共同成就了民主党的微弱优势。由于佐治亚州独有的特性与传统,其选举结果对其自身乃至整个南方的辐射效应相对有限。佐治亚州的胜利背后是民主党尝试寻求扩展南方政治空间新途径的努力,但至少目前来看并不意味着民主党传统"南方战略"的失败。

In the 2020 U.S.elections,the Democratic Party won unexpected victories in the presidential election and the congressional elections in the state of Georgia.The Democratic Party’s victory in Georgia is the result of continuous accumulation trends in recent years,but it has only formed a close match with the Republican Party and has not reached the best in history.The growth trend of minority voters especially including African Americans in Georgia and the expansion of metro areas such as Atlanta and suburbs as long-term factors,with the extreme agenda of the Trump administration and its ineffective prevention and control of the COVID-19 pandemic which to some extent lost the support of the GOP voters as medium-and short-term factors,as well as some sudden factors,have combined to achieve the weak advantage of the Democratic Party.Due to the unique characteristics and traditions of Georgia,its election results have relatively limited radiation effects on itself and the entire South.The victory in Georgia shows the Democratic Party’s efforts to seek new ways to expand the political influence in the South,but at least for now it does not mean that the Democratic Party’s traditional"Southern Strategy"has failed.