当代美国的政党政治极化:动因、走向与影响

The Contemporary Partisan Polarization in the U.S.:Causes,Trends and Influences

当代美国的政党政治极化是美国政治研究的重要内容。美国政治研究分为制度研究、结构研究与过程研究三类,其中制度和结构是静态的,过程是动态的。因此,对当代美国政党政治极化的深入探讨,需要综合制度性、结构性及过程性要素,构建一个系统分析框架。当前,国内外既有相关研究已形成四种主要模式:经济—阶层模式、制度—规则模式、宗教—文化模式和意识形态模式。这些模式由于聚焦静态的制度和结构维度,对过程维度关注不足,因而忽视了当代美国政党政治极化与历史上反复出现的政党政治极化的根本差异,由此欠缺对其动因、特征与影响的充分理解。为弥补已有研究的不足,本文引入联盟重塑和政党重组两个相关联的过程性变量,表明美国的政党政治格局在理论上包括非对等极化、非对等协商、对等协商和对等极化四种形态,而当代美国政党政治极化的本质特征在于其以20世纪70年代的国内政治联盟重塑为核心变量、以政党重组为中介变量、以政党政治格局重构为因变量,形成了民主、共和两党对等极化这一最极端形态。特朗普政府执政以来,美国政治的演化态势反映出政党政治格局的新一轮重构已开启,对等极化正进一步衍生为断层极化。

The issue of the contemporary partisan polarization in the U.S.is an important part in studying American politics.The study on American politics can be divided into three categories:institution,structure and process.Therefore,in order to fully understand partisan polarization in the U.S.,we need to integrate these three categories to build a systemic analytical framework.Up to the present,the related studies have formed four models:economy-class model,institution-rule model,religion-culture model and ideology model.However,all of them are only focusing institution andstructure,but have ignored process.In this regard,this article introduces two variables belong to political process,namely alliance and party realignments,to better understand the causes of the contemporary partisan polarization in the U.S.,make clear of its trends and influences on American politics.The conclusion is that there are three forms of partisan polarization in the U.S.:deeply but not closely divided form,closely but not deeply divided form,and deeply and closely divided form.