告别“后冷战合作时期”的北极安全:态势、动因与出路

Farewell to Arctic Security in the“Post-Cold War Cooperation Period”:Situation,Motivationand Solution

近年来北极安全形势发生了较大变化。北极国家先后发布新版北极国家战略:俄罗斯北极安全战略以公开对抗性方式应对安全威胁;美国更加重视北极国防安全,增加在北极地区的军事部署和军事演习;芬兰加入北约增强北约的净防御能力;北欧国家加强防务一体化,在安全方面更加依赖美国;北极理事会未来合作充满不确定性。当前北极安全态势的形成受近些年俄美安全对抗和利益竞争的影响,也是俄乌冲突连锁效应进一步催化和北极安全机制缺失的结果。由此,终止了北极地区的“后冷战时代”,加剧了俄与美西方在北极地区的对抗、冲突和战争风险,阻碍了北极地区的合作和治理进程,北极国家从促进相互依存转向管理脆弱性,不利于所有国家在北极事务和北极治理上的参与。在这一背景下,我国应积极推动北极地区朝着和平稳定的方向迈进,为北极治理提供公共产品,继续加强与北极主要行为体的合作,并推动恢复北极理事会框架下的北极治理和建立北极安全协调机制。

The Arctic security situation has changed considerably in recent years.Arctic countries have successively released new versions of their Arctic national strategies.In response to this,Russia’s Arctic security strategy addresses security threats in an openly confrontational manner.And the United States attaches greater importance to Arctic national defense and security and has increased its military deployments and exercises in the Arctic accordingly.Finland’s accession to NATO has enhanced NATO’s net defense capability.The Nordic countries have strengthened their integration of their defense services and have become more reliant on the United States in terms of security.And the future of the Arctic Council’s cooperation is fraught with uncertainty.The formation of the current Arctic security situation has been influenced by the security confrontation and competing interests of Russia and the United States in recent years,as well as further catalyzed by the knock-on effects of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the absence of an Arctic security mechanism.It has put an end to the“post-cold war era”in the Arctic region,exacerbated the risk of confrontation,conflict and war between Russia,the United States and the West in the Arctic region,impeded the process of cooperation and governance in the Arctic region,and shifted the Arctic countries from promoting interdependence to managing vulnerability,which is not conducive to the participation of all countries in Arctic affairs and Arctic governance.China should actively promote progress towards peace and stability in the Arctic region,provide public goods for Arctic governance,continue to strengthen cooperation with the major Arctic actors in a neutral manner,and promote the restoration of Arctic governance under the framework of the Arctic Council and the establishment of an Arctic security coordination mechanism.