旅华外国客源市场的俱乐部收敛研究——识别方法与影响因素

Club Convergence in China’s Foreign Tourist Source Market:Recognition Method and Convergence Factors

鉴于市场的异质性和资源的有限性,旅游目的地需要对客源市场进行细分。根据俱乐部收敛假说,一个收敛俱乐部即为一个具有相似的初始水平、结构特征和演变趋势的自然细分市场。与人为预先设定俱乐部进行收敛检验不同,文章基于1997—2017年间全球139个国家和地区的旅华人次数据,采用非线性时变因子模型及其聚类算法对旅华外国客源市场进行俱乐部收敛检验和识别,并进一步运用ordered logit模型考察俱乐部收敛的影响因素。研究发现:旅华外国客源市场中共存在4个收敛俱乐部,各俱乐部在市场基础和变化趋势方面具有较大差异,且并未表现出明显的地理邻近或经济相似特征;客源市场的初始旅华人次、人均收入水平、人口规模和对外开放程度,客源市场与中国的地理距离、文化距离和经济距离,客源市场是否与中国接壤、是否施行过境免签政策等因素均显著影响客源市场所属收敛俱乐部的类别。为此,相关部门应当为不同收敛俱乐部中的客源市场制定差异化的营销推广方案,要不断巩固和强化俱乐部A中的客源市场,积极拓展和重点开发俱乐部B中的客源市场,并为俱乐部C注入新的发展动力。

With the ongoing continued sluggish growth for China’s inbound tourism,tourism management departments have to formulate global marketing strategies to attract international visitors.It is particularly important to analyze the global market toward formulating a market-oriented destination strategy.Club convergence research can provide a decision-making basis for segmenting the source market and formulating specific market-oriented strategies.This paper studied club convergence for China’s foreign tourist source market,using data about visitors to China from 139 countries and regions for 1997—2017.Conventional club convergence analysis relies on artificially setting the boundaries of clubs before judging convergence.Thus,subjectivity is strong,and it becomes difficult to effectively identify clubs that meet the convergence hypothesis.The present investigation has merits in examining club convergence for China’s foreign tourist source market.First,we adopted the nonlinear time-varying factor model and clustering algorithm to automatically select and identify convergent clubs in that market.Then,using the ordered logit model,we investigated the factors affecting club grouping and their marginal effects.The main results were as follows.First,we identified four convergence clubs in China’s foreign tourist source market.We found that when considering the heterogeneity of that market and time-varying rate of convergence,it did not display an overall trend of convergence.In a conventional analysis of Asian and non-Asian countries as well as developed and developing countries,we found that conventional clubs did not satisfy the convergence hypothesis.However,using the nonlinear time-varying factor model and clustering algorithm,we identified four convergent clubs.Each club exerted a major effect on the market basis and development trend;the clubs lacked clear geographic proximity.Second,the convergence clubs were affected by many factors,including the following:the initial number of tourists to China;per capita income level;population size;degree of openness to the outside world;geographic distance;cultural distance;economic distance;whether the source market bordered on China;and whether a transit visa-free policy was implemented.All the factors significantly affected the source market to which the convergence club belonged.From the above findings,we drew the following conclusions.First,previous methods of dividing the customer source market based on geographic or economic factors lacked rationality.We advocate breaking the constraints of conventional geographic divisions or economic development levels.Instead,it is necessary to analyze China’s foreign tourist source markets using the club identification results we obtained;it is important to implement similar marketing strategies or promotional activities when examining source markets in the same convergent club.Second,it is essential to customize and implement appropriate marketing and promotion plans when assessing the source markets of different convergence clubs.Tourism marketing management departments should continue to consolidate and strengthen club A(with high market share),actively expand and focus on club B(with rapid growth),enhance research on club C(with insufficient growth momentum)to inject new impetus into the development of its source market,and strive for and steadily develop club D(with small market share and slow growth).Third,it is necessary to comprehensively consider the influence of various factors on the grouping of China’s foreign tourist source market clubs.It is imperative to consider geographic proximity effects;however,on the basis of geographic factors,it is necessary also to consider the effects of other factors on the source market.