旅游气候舒适性评价:模型优化与中国案例

Evaluate Tourism Climate Using Modified Holiday Climate Index in China

气候变化背景下,旅游活动和旅游产业的气候敏感性进一步凸显,气候舒适性的旅游影响及其合理评价备受关注。然而,对于旅游这一非惯常环境下的特殊体验,基于通用模型的气候舒适性评价是不完备的,需要采用专门的旅游气候舒适性评价模型。文章通过多模型的梳理和比较,选择度假气候指数(holiday climate index,HCI),并从"要素阈值分等"与"体感评价分级"两方面对其调整,提出改良的度假气候指数(modified holiday climate index,MHCI)。进一步,基于1981—2010年间全国775个基本(基准)气象站点的日值气象数据,引入气候舒适期和气候舒适域指标,通过MHCI测算分析了我国旅游气候舒适期的空间格局和旅游气候舒适域的季节变化。结果表明:有别于一般气候舒适期,全国旅游气候舒适期整体上呈现为"北长南短"的空间格局,其中,夏季和冬季表现出较强的纬度地带性,地方旅游业发展可因地制宜给予利用;全国旅游气候舒适域面积的两个高峰值分别出现在5月中下旬和9月下旬—10月上旬,其中",五一"和"十一"类似,全国大部分地区的旅游气候舒适概率都在50%以上,恢复"五一"黄金周假期具有良好的气候环境基础。文章研究结果有助于理解旅游气候舒适性与一般气候舒适性的差异所在,并可为旅游业应对气候变化提供一定的科学基础。

Tourism industry is a resource-dependent industry,since all forms of tourism activities are sensitive to climate to an extent.Analysing the impact of climate change on tourism is therefore conducive to tourism development.Following this logic,multi-dimensional climate indices are called for to evaluate the climate for tourism,and previous studies in China have centred the usage of the much criticized"climate index"with low resolution climate data.Analysing the existing tourism climate comfort evaluation models,this study selects the more suitable holiday climate index(HCI),applying the"seasonal anchor method"and relevant national standards to optimize the threshold division criteria for each meteorological element.A modified holiday climate index(MHCI)was further examined when MHCI scores are compared with the HCI scores,justifying its suitability.Taking China as a case,this paper acquired daily meteorological data from 775 weather stations.Using GIS spatial analysis tools,this paper examines inter-regional differences in the average annual and seasonal tourist climate comfortable periods and tourist climate comfortable areas across China from 1981—2010.The main findings are as follows.For one,China has an average of 122.0 days of tourism comfortable period during the year,in which the summer tourism climate has the longest comfort period of up to 41.7 days,and the winter tourism climate has the shortest comfort period of only 7.1 days.The tourism climate comfort period in spring and autumn is about 37 days.In terms of spatial distribution,high-value areas are concentrated in Yunnan,Southern Xinjiang and Western Inner Mongolia.Secondly,the peak of the average annual tourism climate comfort area in China appears in mid-to-late May,late September and early October,laying the natural foundation for seasonal tourism in China.During Labour holiday and the National holiday,the tourism climate comfort probability is above 50%in most areas of the country,especially in Xinjiang.Government departments and tourism enterprises should pay attention to Xinjiang’s great tourism climate resources,and thus develop and utilize them better.These results can provide some scientific evidence applying tourism climate comfortable indices and climate comfortable indices,and help to improve the tourism industry responding to global climate change.Tourism climate comfort evaluation can further be used to determine the weight of meteorological elements reasonably through different quantitative methods.Considering the simulation prediction of future tourism climate comfort in the context of climate change,combined with the tourism flow analysis,this study provides a scientific basis for government departments and tourism enterprises to formulate policies and plans.