未来时间洞察力与旅游意向的关系研究——以成功老龄化群体为例

The Relationship between Future Time Perspective and Travel Intention:A Case Study of a Successful Aging Group

旅游已逐渐成为应对老龄化的积极方法,有利于促进成功老龄化的实现。然而,现有的老年人旅游决策研究多关注外部资源、健康状况、心理因素等因素,忽略了老年人对时间概念认知的特殊意义。基于此,文章聚焦于未来时间洞察力,以1946—1963年出生的老年人为研究对象,以社会情绪选择理论和计划行为理论为基础,引入行为态度、主观规范、感知行为控制为中介变量,通过定性(访谈)与定量(问卷调查)相结合的研究方法,探究未来时间洞察力对老年人旅游意向的影响及其内在机制。研究结果表明:(1)开放的未来时间洞察力和有限的未来时间洞察力均正向影响老年人的旅游意向;(2)行为态度和感知行为控制在未来时间洞察力与老年人旅游意向间均起完全中介作用,主观规范的中介作用不显著,即未来时间洞察力通过行为态度和感知行为控制正向影响老年人旅游意向。文章揭示了未来时间洞察力对老年人旅游决策的内在影响机制,以期丰富老年人旅游决策机制和成功老龄化领域的相关研究,为老年旅游市场发展和实现成功老龄化战略提供参考。

To solve the severe challenges related to the aging population in China,it is important to explore various approaches to realize the positive effects of an aging society.Tourism has gradually become a positive way to deal with aging,as well as to promote the realization of successful aging.However,previous studies of senior tourism decision-making have focused on driving factors and obstacles,such as external resources,health status,and psychological factors,neglecting the significance of seniors’time-related cognition.Although time-related factors have been shown to have an important influence on senior tourism decision-making,the mechanisms underlying time-related effects on senior tourism decision-making are not yet clear,and few studies have examined this topic.Therefore,based on the theory of socioemotional selectivity and the theory of planned behavior,the current study focused on future time perspective,investigating the influence of elderly future time perception on tourism decision-making and the mechanisms underlying this process.The current study combined two theories through a future time perspective to extend the explanatory power of existing theoretical models in the context of senior tourism.Elderly individuals born between 1946 and 1963 were recruited as research participants,and attitudes toward behavior,subjective norms and perceived behavioral control were included in the research model to explore the effects of future time perspective on senior travel intentions and its underlying mechanisms.This study used qualitative(interview)and quantitative(questionnaire)methods.The conclusions were as follows.First,the two dimensions of future time perspective(open future time perspective and limited future time perspective)both had a significant positive effect on senior travel intention,confirming the importance of future time perspective in senior tourism decision-making;second,attitudes toward behavior and perceived behavior control both played a full mediating role in future time perspective and travel intention,revealing the internal mechanisms and path of the relationship between future time perspective and senior travel intention.Open future time perspective and limited future time perspective positively affected senior travel intentions through attitudes toward behavior and perceived behavior control and the indirect effect of the open future time perspective was greater than that of the limited future time perspective.The effects of subjective norms were not significant.This study makes the following theoretical contributions.First,the results revealed the inherent influencing mechanism of future time perspective on senior tourism decision-making,as well as extending previous research on senior tourism decision-making mechanisms and successful aging.The current study also provided a new perspective for senior tourism decision-making research,helping to fill the gap in knowledge regarding future time perspective in the context of senior tourism.Second,this study divides future time perspective into a two-dimensional structure and expanded on previous studies,most of which used future time perspective as a single-dimensional construct.Third,this study confirmed the compatibility of the theory of socioemotional selectivity and the theory of planned behavior.In terms of management implications,the current findings may be useful for informing the development of the senior tourism market and the achievement of successful aging strategies.In addition,these findings could be helpful for tourism enterprises developing effective marketing strategies.