劳动力成本上升与农户营林投入结构调整——基于林种视角的分析

Rising Labor Costs and Farmers'Input Structure Adjustment in Forest Culture and Management——Analysis Based on the Perspective of Forest Category

在劳动力成本不断上升的背景下,农户营林投入结构呈现基本稳定态势,这与Hayami-Ruttan诱致性技术变迁理论的预期不符。文章从林种结构的调节效应视角出发,构建“劳动力成本-营林投入结构-林种结构”理论分析框架,基于国家林业和草原局发展研究中心9个省(自治区)固定样本农户监测数据,运用Mundlak相关随机效应模型,实证分析劳动力成本对农户营林投入结构的影响以及林种结构的调节效应,以期明晰营林投入结构基本稳定的经济机理及形成机制,为促进营林投入结构优化升级提供决策参考。研究结果表明:(1)劳动力成本上升会诱导农户营林投入资本对劳动的替代,但该效应的实现会受到种植结构调整的抵减。受经济属性和技术属性双重差异的影响,农户倾向于种植经济效益较高的经济林,从而增加劳动力需求,削弱劳动力成本上升对要素替代的诱致效应。在加入林种结构的内生性以及林业生产经营的特殊性后,上述结论依然成立。(2)新一轮集体林权制度改革通过赋权强能,进一步强化了林种结构的调节效应,使农户营林投入结构呈现稳定态势,而较高的要素市场化发育程度会弱化林种结构的调节效应,进而有助于促进林业投入结构的资本深化。文章提出促进营林投入结构调整优化的政策启示:一是林业部门需要出台相应的制度和政策以支持林业投入结构升级;二是提高用材林相对收益,重点关注林木采伐许可政策;三是加速要素市场化进程,畅通林业生产要素流动渠道。

With rising labor costs,farmers'input structure of forest culture and management presents a stable trend,which is not consistent with the expectation of Hayami-Ruttan's induced technological change theory.Considering the moderating effect of forest category structure,this paper constructed a theoretical framework of Labor Cost-Input Structure of Forest Culture and Management-Forest Category Structure,and based on the data collected from 9 provinces(autonomous regions)by China National Forestry-Grassland Development Research Center,empirically analyzed the effect of rising labor costs on the input structure of forest culture and management and the moderating effect of forest category structure by using the Mundlak random effect model so as to clarify the economic mechanism and formation mechanism of the stable input structure and provide decision references for the optimization and upgrading of forest culture and management input structure.The results showed that:(1)The increased labor costs would induce the substitution of capital for labor on forest culture and management,but the substitution would be offset by the forest structure.Due to the double differences in economic and technical attributes,farmers intended to plant economic forests with higher economic benefits,thus labor demand was increased,and the induced effect of rising labor costs on factor substitution was weakened.After considering the endogeneity of forest category structure and the particularity of forestry production and management,the above conclusions were still valid.(2)Through the new round of collective forest right system reform,farmers have been granted more complete and secure property rights,which further strengthened the moderating effect of forest category structure and made the input structure of forest culture and management present a stable trend.The moderating effect would be weakened under higher level of factor marketization,which could further promote the capital deepening of forest culture and management input structure.Based on the empirical results,this paper put forward policy implications to promote the adjustment and optimization of input structure of forestry.Firstly,the forestry department should introduce relative systems and policies to support the upgrading of forestry input structure.Secondly,increase the revenue of timber forests and pay attention to the license of the forest harvest.Finally,accelerate the factor marketization and keep smooth flow channels of forestry production factors.