长江经济带城市群绿色发展空间分布及障碍因子分析

Spatial Distribution and Obstacle Factor Analysis of Green Development of Urban Agglomeration in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

长江经济带作为我国经济发展要地和生态宝库,在践行区域高质量绿色发展方面有着重要战略地位。为掌握长江经济带绿色发展态势,文章以长江经济带7个城市群包含的84个地级市为研究依托,构建了包含绿色增长、绿色财富、绿色福利3个子系统和22个因子在内的评价指标体系。基于2010-2019年长江经济带城市群的面板数据,借助熵权TOPSIS模型系统测度城市群绿色发展水平,并采用空间自相关方法研究城市群绿色发展水平的空间分布特征。最后,基于障碍度模型,进一步探究阻碍城市群绿色发展的障碍因子。研究结果表明:(1)从时间上看,长江经济带7个城市群整体绿色发展水平由2010年的0.372提升至2019年的0.394,呈缓步提升态势;研究期内长三角及滇中城市群均高于整体绿色发展水平,其余城市群绿色发展水平提升潜力较大。(2)从空间上看,长江经济带7个城市群的绿色发展存在空间聚集现象,但在2019年聚集程度有所降低;高值聚集区集中于长三角城市群,低值聚集区数量不断减少,但成渝城市群及川滇黔城市群仍存在低值空间锁定现象。(3)整体上看,绿色福利是阻碍绿色发展的主要子系统,科技教育、居民收入、环境治理及经济水平是障碍度排名前四的障碍因子,各城市群绿色发展的具体障碍因子存在差异。因而,为促进长江经济带总体协调绿色发展,应考虑增强科技创新驱动机制,着力发展低碳循环经济,完善基础设施建设,因地制宜实施绿色发展战略。

As an important place for China’s economic development and an ecological treasure house,the Yangtze River Economic Belt plays an important strategic role in practicing regional high-quality green development.In order to grasp the general situation of green development in the Yangtze River Economic Belt,based on the research of 84 prefecture level cities included in 7 urban agglomerations,the evaluation index system including 3 subsystems and 22 factors of green growth,green wealth and green welfare was constructed.Based on the panel data of urban agglomerations in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2010 to 2019,the green development level of urban agglomerations was systematically measured with the help of entropy weight TOPSIS model,and the spatial autocorrelation method was used to study the spatial distribution characteristics of green development level of urban agglomerations.Finally,based on the obstacle degree model,the obstacle factors that hinder the green development of urban agglomeration were further explored.The results showed that:(1)In terms of time,the overall green development level of the seven urban agglomerations in the Yangtze River Economic Belt increased from 0.372 in 2010 to 0.394 in 2019,showing a gradual improvement trend.During the study period,the urban agglomerations in the Yangtze River Delta and central Yunnan were higher than the overall green development level,and the green development level of other urban agglomerations had great potential.(2)From the perspective of space,there was a phenomenon of spatial agglomeration in the urban agglomeration of the Yangtze River Economic Belt,but the degree of agglomeration had decreased in 2019.The high-value agglomeration areas were concentrated in the urban agglomeration of the Yangtze River Delta,and the number of low-value agglomeration areas was decreasing.However,there was still a state of low-value spatial locking in Chengdu Chongqing urban agglomeration and Sichuan Yunnan Guizhou urban agglomeration.(3)On the whole,the Green Welfare subsystem was the main factor hindering green development.Science and technology education,residents’income,environmental governance and economic level were the top four obstacle factors.There were differences in the specific obstacle factors of green development among urban agglomerations.Therefore,in order to promote the overall coordinated green development of the Yangtze River economic belt,it is necessary to strengthen the driving mechanism of scientific and technological innovation,focus on the development of low-carbon circular economy,improve infrastructure construction,and implement the green development strategy according to local conditions.