房地产税试点改革决定的市场反应及影响因素

Market Reaction and Influencing Factors of Real Estate Tax Pilot Reform Decision

2021年10月23日,全国人大常委会授权国务院在我国部分地区开展房地产税改革试点工作,标志着我国全面推进房地产税改革迈出关键性步伐。文章以我国A股上市公司为样本,运用事件研究法检验房地产税试点改革决定的市场反应及影响因素。研究发现:房地产税试点改革决定的公布未能在短期内获得投资者积极预期,整体市场反应为负;与非房地产相关行业相比,房地产税试点改革决定给房地产及其上下游行业带来更为显著的负向影响,并通过供需挤压和信用风险两个渠道发挥作用。进一步细分公司特征发现:位于低层级城市的房地产相关行业上市公司的市场反应更消极,国有企业表现出更低的累计超额收益率。研究拓展了房地产税改革的微观经济后果研究,对房地产税试点改革方案的顶层设计具有参考价值。

On October 23,2021,the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress authorized the State Council to initiate a pilot reform of real estate tax in selected regions of China,marking a pivotal advancement in the comprehensive promotion of real estate tax reform in China.Employing the event study method,this paper examines the market reaction and influencing factors of the real estate tax pilot reform decision using A-share listed firms in China as research samples.The findings reveal that the announcement of the real estate tax pilot reform decision did not elicit positive expectations from investors in the short term,resulting in an overall negative market reaction.The real estate industry and its upstream and downstream sectors experienced a more pronounced negative impact compared to non-real estate related industries.This impact is attributed to factors such as supply and demand squeeze and credit risk channels.Furthermore,upon analyzing firm characteristics,it is observed that firms located in lower-tier cities exhibit a more adverse market reaction,while state-owned enterprises demonstrate a lower cumulative excess return rate.This study contributes to the understanding of the microeconomic consequences of real estate tax reform and offers valuable insights for the forthcoming real estate tax pilot reform plan.