老龄化、住房价格与宏观杠杆率

Aging, Housing Prices and Macro Leverage Ratio

通过构建DSGE基准模型和扩展模型,引入家庭、企业及政府部门借贷机制和老龄化冲击,从住房价格及宏观杠杆率视角研究老龄化对金融稳定的影响。研究发现:考虑住房投资品属性的扩展模型中,面临老龄化冲击后,我国居民杠杆率会上升,住房价格会暴涨后暴跌,可能造成房地产泡沫破裂,从而引发金融危机;技术冲击还将使居民杠杆率进一步上升并使其与老龄化冲击叠加,房价暴涨暴跌的效应会倍增,房价泡沫破灭后,可能引发金融危机。不考虑住房投资品属性的基准模型中,老龄化冲击对房价从而对宏观杠杆率的负面影响明显减弱。我国必须构建"房住不炒"机制,完善及推广"以房养老"政策,营造良好金融投资环境,缓解老龄化对金融稳定的负面冲击。

By constructing a benchmark DSGE model and its expansion model and introducing loan system of household,enterprises,government and aging shock into models,this paper studies the impact of aging on financial stability from perspectives of housing prices and macro leverage ratio.The results reveal that in the expansion model with the attributes of housing investment products considered,under the aging shock,the leverage ratio of Chinese residents could rise,housing price could plummet and then plunge,which is likely to cause the housing price bubble to burst and trigger a financial crisis.What’s more,the technical shock would further increase the leverage ratio of residents and if it is superimposed with the aging shock,the fluctuation of housing price could double.Then,after the housing price bubble bursts,the financial crisis may be inevitable.In the benchmark model,which does not consider the attributes of housing investment products,the negative impact of the aging shock on the housing prices and leverage ratio is significantly weakened.China must build a mechanism of"no housing speculation",improve and promote policies of"household pension"to develop a good financial investment environment and alleviate the negative impact of aging on financial stability.