制造业杠杆、企业异质性与银行系统性风险

Manufacturing Leverage, Enterprise Heterogeneity and Banking Systemic Risk

金融安全是经济平稳健康发展的重要基础,防范化解系统性风险是金融工作的根本性任务。本文基于2008-2018年我国16家上市银行、制造业企业等相关数据,对制造业杠杆、企业异质性和银行系统性风险之间的关系进行实证分析,结果表明:第一,制造业杠杆对银行系统性风险具有明显的正向影响,但传导机制并不单一,且较为复杂;第二,制造业杠杆对银行系统性风险的影响存在明显的企业异质性,主要表现为国有企业和民营企业整体杠杆率对银行系统性风险的影响方式和传导路径差别较大;第三,银行流动性监管指标在一定程度上缓解了制造业杠杆对银行系统性风险的不利影响,并且这种缓释作用主要表现在国有企业。因此,应加强银行系统性风险的源头治理,推动制造业企业降低债务杠杆,促进债务杠杆由非金融企业部门向政府部门和居民部门进行有序适度转移,以更好地实现整体制造业的转型升级和金融体系的健康稳定发展。

Financial security is an important foundation for the steady and healthy development of the economy,and preventing and deflating systemic risks is the fundamental task of financial work.Based on the relevant data of 16 listed banks and manufacturing industries in China from 2008 to 2018,this paper conducts an empirical analysis on the relationship among manufacturing leverage,corporate heterogeneity and banking systemic risk.The results show that:First,manufacturing leverage has a significantly positive impact on bank systemic risks,but the transmission mechanism is not single and complex.Second,there is obvious corporate heterogeneity in the impact of manufacturing leverage on bank systemic risk,which is mainly manifested in a large difference in the way and transmission path of the overall leverage ratio of state-owned enterprises and private enterprises on bank systemic risk.Third,the bank liquidity supervision indicators alleviate the adverse impact of manufacturing leverage on bank systemic risks to a certain extent,and this mitigation effect is mainly manifested in state-owned enterprises.To this end,we should strengthen the source governance of bank systemic risks,promote manufacturing enterprises to reduce debt leverage,and promote the orderly and appropriate transfer of debt leverage from non-financial corporate sectors to government and residential sectors,so as to better achieve overall manufacturing transformation and upgrading and the healthy and stable development of the financial system.