江苏省冷链物流需求预测分析——基于灰色GM(1,1)模型分析

Analysis on Cold Chain Logistics Demand Forecast in Jiangsu Province——Based on Grey GM(1,1) Model Analysis

文章以江苏省农产品的冷链产量作为切入点,选取冷链农产品中的肉类、蔬菜、水产品、水果、牛奶、禽蛋类作为影响因子,运用灰色GM(1,1)模型对江苏省未来几年的冷链物流需求进行预测。研究结果表明,该模型精度较高为99.62%,因此可以给当地的相关部门提供数据参考。最后,对江苏省冷链物流的发展规划提出可行的建议。

The paper takes the cold chain output of agricultural products in Jiangsu Province as the breakthrough point,selects meat,vegetables,aquatic products,fruits,milk,poultry and eggs in the cold chain agricultural products as the influencing factors,and uses GM(1,1)model to predict the cold chain logistics demand in Jiangsu Province in the next few years.The research results show that the accuracy of the model is 99.62%,which is high.Therefore,it can provide data reference for the relevant local departments.Finally,it puts forward five feasible suggestions for the development planning of cold chain logistics in Jiangsu Province.