民国时期江南地区疫灾地理研究

A Geographic Study of Epidemic Disasters in the Jiangnan Area in China(1912-1949)

疫灾自古以来就是人类健康和生命安全的巨大威胁。本文通过编制疫灾序列,采用历史文献分析、数理统计分析和GIS空间分析等方法,对民国时期江南地区的疫灾时空变迁进行研究,结果发现:一、民国时期江南地区无年不疫,疫灾季发率高达94.70%,秋、夏、春三季疫灾多发,集中了全年近九成的疫灾县数,秋、夏季尤甚,集中了全年四分之三的疫灾县数;逐年的疫灾广度总体呈上升趋势,但波动特征明显;在明初至民国末年的582年间,江南地区疫灾的波动周期越来越短,年均发生疫灾的县数越来越多,说明随着时间的推移,疫灾越来越频繁,民国时期是江南地区历史上疫灾最频繁最严重的时期。二、民国时期江南地区的疫灾主要分布于大运河、宁沪杭铁路沿线及其以东的地区,苏州—无锡一带和环上海地区为疫灾热点区,江苏溧阳地区和浙西山丘地区为疫灾冷点区;疫灾分布重心始终位于苏州境内。三、民国时期江南地区疫灾分布的一般规律是:交通沿线城市都是疫灾高发点,人口稠密区多为疫灾频发区,水旱灾害严重区也是疫灾严重区,平原地区的疫灾多于山丘地区的疫灾。

Epidemics have always been a great threat to people’s health and life security throughout history.To analyze the temporal and spatial variation of epidemic disasters that occurred in the Jiangnan area during 1912-1949,we compiled a list of the epidemic data,and made use of different methods such as historical document review,mathematical statistics and GIS spatial analysis.The results show that:(1)The incidence rate of epidemics was 100%annually and 94.70%quarterly in the time interval.Autumn,summer and spring were usually epidemic seasons,especially in the autumn and summer time.The affected area enlarged year by year,but the fluctuation curve reflected that there were 6 peaks in 38 years.Considering a longer period,i.e.from the Ming Dynasty to the establishment of the People’s Republic of China(582 years in total),the return period of epidemic disasters gradually shortened and the number of affected counties increased.It indicates that the epidemic severity in the study period was the highest in the Jiangnan’s history.(2)The affected area of epidemics basically spreaded along the Grand Canal and the Nanjing-Shanghai-Hangzhou railway,and the area to their east.Suzhou-Wuxi area and a section of Shanghai adjacent to Suzhou were the hot spots of epidemic disasters,while the mountainous area of Western Zhejiang Province was rarely affected.(3)The general characteristics of epidemic disaster’s distributions during 1912-1949 in the Jiangnan area indicate that the hot spots were usually the regions along transportation lines,with a higher population density,or lately suffered severe floods or droughts.Moreover,epidemics spread in plain areas more often and severe than in mountainous areas.