中国四大粮食品种的进口依赖性风险分析

Analysis of Import Dependence of China's Four Major Grain Varieties

中国的粮食进口规模不断扩大,进口集中度普遍较高。本文通过构建粮食进口依赖性风险评价指标进行评价后发现:中国的大豆进口存在依赖性风险,且风险主要来自美国,其次为巴西;大米进口存在进口依赖性风险,风险主要来自印度和巴基斯坦;玉米进口对美国的依赖性较高,存在进口依赖性风险;小麦进口对澳大利亚、加拿大和法国均存在依赖性风险,其中,风险主要来自澳大利亚。对此,提出三点政策建议:一是提升粮食生产能力,减少国际市场的依赖;二是拓宽粮食进口渠道,实施多元化进口战略;三是加强区域经贸合作,打造粮食贸易新格局。

The scale of China's grain imports has been expanding and the concentration of imports is generally high.In this paper,after evaluating grain import dependence risk evaluation indexes,we found that:China's soybean imports have dependence risk,and the risk mainly comes from the United States,followed by Brazil;rice imports have import dependence risk,and the risk mainly comes from India and Pakistan;corn imports have high dependence on the United States and have import dependence risk;the risk of import dependence exists for wheat imports to Australia,Canada and France,among which the risk mainly comes from Australia.In this regard,this paper puts forward the following three policy recommendations:firstly,enhance grain production capacity and reduce dependence on the international market;secondly,broaden grain import channels and implement a diversified import strategy;thirdly,strengthen regional economic and trade cooperation and create a new patterm of grain trade.