新冠疫情冲击下最低收购价格调整的政策效应研究

Study on the Policy Effect of Minimum Purchase Price Adjustment under the Impact of the Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia Epidemic

中国粮食价格支持政策已经进入深度调整改革期,2020年,政府再次上调最低收购价格,此次调整的政策效应值得关注。研究发现,首先,新冠疫情会对国际粮食市场和国内粮食市场的生产与流通产生负面影响。其次,在政策调整后,国内粮食价格波动幅度明显小于国际市场,政策执行区粮食产量增长明显高于非执行区,可见政策价格上调能够发挥保供稳价的政策效应。最后,政策调整是通过释放价格信号引导生产经营主体形成积极的市场预期,进而影响各主体经营决策。在特殊时期,建议适当放缓口粮最低收购价改革进度,密切关注市场反应和走向;在考虑取消价格支持政策之前,应当设计好能够稳定市场预期的替代方案,确保重大事件冲击下政府能够有效维护粮食市场秩序。

Grain price support policy has entered a period of in-depth adjustment and reform,and the govermment raised the minimum purchase price again during the COVID-19 outbreak.The policy effect of this adjustment is worthy of attention.This study found that the COVID-19 pandemic will have a negative impact on the production and circulation of intermnational food markets as well as domestic food markets.After the adjustment,the fluctuation of domestic grain prices is significantly less than that of the intemational market,and the increase of grain output in the policy implementation area is significantly higher than that in the non-implementation area.It can be seen that the policy price increase can play a role in the policy effect of ensuring stable supply and price.In the special period,it is suggested to slow down the reform progress of the minimum purchase price policy,and pay close attention to the market reaction and trend.Before considering removing the price support policy,the government should design an alternative plan that can stabilize market expectations and ensure that food market order can be effectively maintained under the impact of major events.