临储政策改革对玉米市场间价格波动传递的影响研究

Study on the Effect of Temporary Storage Policy Reform on Inter-Market Price Fluctuation Pass–Through of Corn

在不同的历史时期,我国政府为了保障玉米市场的健康运转,实行了不同的政策。当玉米价格政策由临时收储调整为市场化收购加补贴时,国内玉米市场收购、批发和零售环节价格波动以及国内外玉米价格波动传导都发生了很大的变化。本文利用2014年1月2日至2018年12月27日的玉米价格周度数据,以玉米临储政策改革为时间节点,分析改革前后国内玉米市场各环节价格波动及传递机制的变化,以及国内外玉米价格波动传递机制的变化。通过对比发现,政策调整之后,国内玉米市场三环节价格开始下跌且波动性增大,呈现价格集聚和非对称传递的特征;国内玉米市场三环节间的价格传递效应明显改善;国内外玉米价格间的传递效应更加明显。基于以上结论,提出相应政策建议。

In different historical periods,the Chinese government has implemented different policies in order to ensure the healthy operation of corn market.When the com price support policy was adjusted from temporary purchase and storage to market purchase and subsidy,the purchasing price,wholesale príce and retail price fluctu-ation and he price fluctuation transmission of domestic and foreign corn prices all changed greatly.Based on the weekly data of corn price from January 2,2014 to December 27,2018,this paper analyzes the changes of price fluctuation and transmission mechanism of every link in the domestic corn market before and after the reform of corn temporary storage policy,as well as the changes of the transmission mechanism of corn price fluctuation at home and abroad.Through comparison,we found that after the policy adjustment,the price of the three links in the do-mestic corn market began to decline and the volatility increased,showing the characteristics of price agglomeration and asymmetric transmission.The price pass–through effect of three–ring internode in domestic corn market was improved obviously.The pass–through effect between domestic and foreign corn prices is more obvious.Based on the above conclusions,corresponding policy suggestions are put forward.