中国粮食价格支持政策有效性分析:短期和长期视角

Analysis on The Effectiveness of Food Price Support Policy in China:Short-term And Long-term Perspectives

粮食价格支持政策的有效性事关国家粮食安全和粮食产业发展质量,不容忽视。根据2004~2016年三种粮食主产省份相关数据,从短期和长期视角对粮食价格支持政策增产增收目标进行分析。研究发现,粮食供给对短期价格缺乏弹性,对长期价格富有弹性,价格支持政策长期激励导致粮食供给扭曲,进而储备扭曲;在开放市场条件下,国内外粮食价格倒挂进一步导致粮食进口扭曲;受农民收入结构稀释和生产成本挤压,价格支持政策的启动对农民增收效果甚微。本文认为,为应对国际粮食危机而启动的价格支持是短期政策,仅具有短期有效性,应及时退出市场,长期启动将导致政策低效甚至无效。据此提出应厘清短期政策和长期政策效力边界以及树立以需求为导向的新型粮食安全观的建议。

The effectiveness of food price support policy related to food security and the quality of food industry.Based on short-term and long-term perspectives,this paper try to find whether the policy achieve the goal of supply-insurance and income-insurance or not.The results suggest that grain supply is inelastic to short-term prices and resilient to long-term prices.Food price support policy has implemented in a long time which results in food output and food stock in low efficiency.Within the frame of the world market,food prices at home and abroad are down,which makes grain import in low efficiency as well.What’s more,price policy has little effect on increasing farmers’income,which is influenced by the structure of income and cost of production.Price policy in response to the international food crisis is effective in short-term,but will fail in long-term.Accordingly,this paper proposes that it’s important to distinguish short-term policy and long-term policy and establish concept of new food security based on demand.