农户储粮投机行为及其影响因素分析——以稻谷为例

Analysis of Grain Storage Speculations of Peasant Households and Its Influencing Factors——Based on Paddy Data

农户储粮是国家粮食储备的重要组成部分,对稳定粮食供给、平抑粮食价格波动以及保障粮食安全具有重要作用。随着农村劳动力转移步伐加快,粮食商品化属性显著增强,农户粮食储存行为发生了重大变化。为此,本文利用农户层面稻谷储存调研数据,研究农村劳动力快速转移背景下的农户储粮现状与储粮行为发现:农户储粮数量总体较少,储粮时间较短,农户储稻的投机意识不强;储粮的劳动力约束增强,农村劳动力转移对农户储粮投机决策有着显著负向影响,而且显著影响农户的储粮时间;仓储条件对农户是否发生储粮投机行为无显著影响,仓储条件对储粮时间具有显著正向影响;粮食价格支持政策对农户储粮投机行为产生显著负向影响,粮食价格支持政策可能具有托市、稳产作用,但不具有稳储效果。

Grain storage of peasant households is an important part of the whole society’s grain reserves,which plays a significant role in stabilizing food supply,easing food price fluctuations and ensuring food security.With the acceleration of the transfer of rural labor,the commercialization attribute of grains has been significantly enhanced and the food storage behavior of farmers has undergone major changes.Therefore,based on the survey data of grain storage on peasant household level,this paper studies the status,the behavior and the constraints of paddy storage under the background of rapid rural labor transfer.This paper finds that the storage volume drops,the storage time decreases and farmers’awareness of speculation in rice grain storage is weak.In addition,labor restrictions increase,rural labor transfer has a significant negative impact on farmers’s peculation in paddy storage and significantly affects grain reserve time.Besides,warehousing conditions affect the grain storage time as ever,farmers with good storage conditions will increase the storage time,but it isn’t the main influencing factors of farmers’speculative action in paddy storage.Finally,the grain price support policies have a conspicuous negative effect on the farmers’speculative behavior in grain storage.The food price support policy may help stabilize grain production,but not the grain reserve.