金融投机如何影响中国的粮食价格——一个理论分析框架

How Financial Speculation Affects Grains Prices in China:——A Framework for Empirical Analysis

首先,本文基于对"粮食金融化"议题相关文献的研究,结合金融投机资本与粮食市场在国内外的发展情况,建立了分析金融投机影响我国粮食价格的路径框架。该路径框架考虑了多渠道影响因素,在同一个体系中将重复或互为因果的路径进行了整合,使路径分析框架在没有遗漏关键因素的同时做到精简。其次,本文为各路径找到了相关理论支撑,进而厘清了整体框架的逻辑关系。最后,本文在此基础上将该路径框架提炼为五大关键性问题,指出了分析金融投机如何影响我国粮食价格的方法。

Based on relevant researches about the issue of financialization of grain,and in combination with the development of financial speculation capital and the grain market in China and abroad,this paper establishes the pathway framework that analyzes how financial speculation affects grains prices in China.This pathway framework fully considers influential factors of all aspects,and integrates same pathways and those with causal relations in the same system.This ensures key factors are not omitted,and removes unnecessary redundancy.Furthermore,every pathway is supported by economics theories,and the logic relation of the entire framework is made clear.On this basis,this paper extracts five critical problems of this framework,pointing out the method used to analyze how financial speculation affects grains prices in China.