长期护理保险政策的财政效应研究

Analysis on the Fiscal Effects of the Long-Term Care Insurance

为了解决人口老龄化进程中的老年人日常生活照料问题,我国于2016年开始了长期护理保险试点工作。利用在线网络调查数据,分析了长期护理保险给付方式和给付标准如何影响照料者在劳动供给和照料安排之间的权衡,以及通过社会保障缴费、税收和转移支付的传导作用产生的财政效应。研究结果表明,两种给付方式对劳动供给具有相反的作用:现金给付标准提高,照料者的劳动参与率和劳动力供给时间均会降低,并且其对女性照料者的影响大于对男性照料者的影响,劳动供给减少导致每个家庭每年产生469元的消极财政效应;实物给付标准提高,照料者的劳动参与率和劳动力供给时间均会增加,其对女性照料者的影响同样大于对男性照料者的影响,劳动供给增加导致每个家庭每年产生502元的积极财政效应。

To address the issue of daily care for older people in the process of population aging,China started a long-term care(LTC)insurance pilot program in 2016.Using online survey data,this paper analyzed how LTC insurance payment patterns and standards affect caregivers’trade-offs in labor supply and care arrangements,as well as the fiscal effects through transmission mechanisms of social security contributions,tax and transfer payments.Results show that the two modes of payment have opposite effects on labor supply.An increase in cash payment decreases labor force participation and labor supply time of caregivers,and this effect is greater for female caregivers than for male caregivers,with a negative fiscal effect of 469 yuan per household per year due to reduced labor supply;an increase in kind payment increases labor force participation and labor supply time of caregivers,and this effect is also greater for female caregivers than for male caregivers,with a positive fiscal effect of 502 yuan per household per year due to increased labor supply.