古浪河上游1956-2013年径流变化特征研究

Characteristics of runoff variation in the upper reaches of Gulang River during 1956-2013

基于水文观测资料,运用数理统计方法对古浪河上游1956-2013年径流变化特征进行分析,结果表明,古浪河上游春、夏、秋、冬及干、湿季径流均呈逐年下降的趋势,夏季径流下降的幅度最大,秋、冬季次之,春季最小;从径流的年代际变化来看,呈先增后减的趋势,20世纪50年代径流整体较大,20世纪80年代达到最高值,21世纪前13 a整体偏小;小波分析表明,未来几年除春季和夏季径流将有所增加外,秋、冬季以及全年的径流都将呈减小的趋势.

Based on the observed hydrological data and mathematical statistics analysis,the characteristics of runoff variation in the upper reaches of Gulang River during 1956-2013 were studied,and the results demonstrated that the runoff in spring,summer,autumn,winter,dry and wet seasons presented a decreasing trend year by year.The largest decrease appeared in summer,followed by the value in autumn and the smallest appeared in spring.According to the interdecadal changes,the runoff increased and then decreased,meaning the runoff in the 1950 s appeared generally larger and then reached its peak in the1980 s,while becoming smaller in the first 13 years of the 21 st century.Wavelet analysis showed that the runoff in autumn and winter would decrease in the next few years,but increase in spring and summer.