低浓度PM2.5对老年人群死亡的影响:基于2015—2018年福州市数据的时间序列研究

Time-series study on effects of low-concentration PM2.5 on mortality in elderly people in Fuzhou from 2015 to 2018

[背景]PM2.5对人群健康影响已经被广泛报道,但研究往往集中在高浓度地区,而低浓度地区PM2.5对人群的健康效应亦值得关注。[目的]探讨低浓度PM2.5暴露对福州市老年人群死亡的影响。[方法]收集2015年1月1日—2018年12月31日福州市环保局和气象局逐日监测的环境、气象资料及福州市人群日均总死亡数和循环系统、呼吸系统日均死亡数等资料。采用广义相加模型分析PM2.5暴露对福州市人群日均总死亡和循环系统、呼吸系统等死亡的影响。[结果]福州市PM2.5、PM10、NO2日均浓度分别为(26.2±13.8)、(49.7±23.8)、(27.6±11.3)μg·m-3,O3-8 h浓度为(86.8±34.1)μg·m-3;日平均气温、相对湿度、气压分别为(21.3±7.0)℃、(73.1±11.6)%、(1008.6±8.3)hPa;日均总死亡数为(30.1±7.2)例、呼吸、循环系统日均死亡数分别为(2.4±1.7)、(11.3±4.0)例。单污染物模型分析显示滞后1 d的影响最大:PM2.5每升高10μg·m-3,65岁及以上人群总死亡、循环系统死亡的ER(95%CI)分别为1.5%(0.5%~2.5%)和2.5%(0.2%~4.8%);双污染物模型分析,当分别引入PM10、NO2、O3-8 h后,65岁及以上人群总死亡风险ER(95%CI)分别为1.3%(0.8%~2.5%)、1.2%(-0.1~2.4%)、1.2%(0.1%~2.3%);三污染物模型分析,65岁及以上人群总死亡和循环系统死亡风险ER(95%CI)分别为1.3%(0.3%~2.3%)、1.7%(0.1%~3.2%)。[结论]低浓度PM2.5暴露可增加福州市65岁及以上老年人死亡的风险。

[Background]The health effects of PM2.5 have been widely reported,but previous studies tend to focus on areas with high concentrations,and more studies should focus on areas with low concentrations.[Objective]This study aims to explore the impact of low-concentration PM2.5 exposure on the elderly population mortality in Fuzhou,Fujian.[Methods]Daily environmental and meteorological data during January 1,2015 and December 31,2018 from Fuzhou Environmental Protection Bureau and Fuzhou Meteorological Bureau were collected,as well as daily counts of total mortality,circulatory mortality,respiratory mortality.The generalized additive model was used to analyze the impacts of PM2.5 exposure on total and cause-specific mortalities in Fuzhou.[Results]The average daily concentrations of PM2.5,PM10,and NO2 in Fuzhou were(26.2±13.8),(49.7±23.8),and(27.6±11.3)μg·m-3,respectively,and the average O3-8 h concentration was(86.8±34.1)μg·m-3.The average daily temperature,relative humidity,and air pressure were(21.3±7.0)℃,(73.1±11.6)%,and(1008.6±8.3)Kpa,respectively.The average daily total mortality was(30.1±7.2)cases,and the average daily mortalities of respiratory and circulatory diseases were(2.4±1.7)and(11.3±4.0)cases,respectively.The single pollutant model analysis results showed that the effect of PM2.5 exposure on population mortality was strongest on lag1.Forevery 10μg·m-3 increase in PM2.5 concentration,the ERs(95%CI)of total mortality and circulatory mortality in the population at the age of 65 years and above were 1.5%(0.5%-2.5%)and 2.5%(0.2%-4.8%),respectively.The two-pollutant model analysis results showed that after separately introducing PM10,NO2,or O3-8 h to the model,the effects of PM2.5 on mortality in the population at the age of 65 years the ERs(95%CI)of total mortality in the population at the age of 65 years and above were 1.3%(0.8%-2.5%),1.2%(-0.1%-2.4%),and 1.2%(0.1%-2.3%),respectively.The three-pollutant model analysis results also showed that the ERs(95%CI)of total mortality and circulatory mortality in the population at the age of 65 years and above were 1.3%(0.3%-2.3%)and 1.7%(0.1%-3.2%),respectively.[Conclusion]Exposure to low-concentration PM2.5 can increase the risk of death in the elderly people at the age of 65 years and above in Fuzhou.