基于投入产出联系的部门波动影响因素分析

Analysis of Influencing Factors of Sectoral Volatility Based on the Input-Output Linkage

随着产业结构转型升级的深入推进,部门产出波动对我国经济社会平稳发展产生越来越重要的影响。基于1987-2017年中国投入产出表数据,通过构建反映投入产出联系的指标——上游度,利用固定效应模型研究上游度对部门产出波动的影响,进而分别探讨了上游度对工业、服务业产出波动和进口、出口波动的影响。实证分析表明,生产网络中距离最终使用越远的部门,其部门产出波动越低,工业、服务业产出波动和进口、出口波动均随上游度的提高而显著下降,其中服务业产出波动和进口波动的下降幅度分别大于工业产出波动和出口波动。

With the deepening of industrial structure transformation and upgrading,the sectoral output volatility has exerted an increasingly important impact on the steady development of China’s economic society.Based on the data of China’s input-output tables from 1987 to 2017,this paper uses the fixed effects model to study the influence of upstreamness on the sectoral output volatility by measuring the upstreamness,an indicator reflecting the input-output linkage,and further explores the influence of upstreamness on the output volatility and the import and export volatility of industrial and service sectors.The empirical analysis shows the more distant the sector in the production network is from end-use,the lower its output volatility is;the output volatility and the import and export volatility of industrial and service sectors significantly decline with the increase of upstreamness;the output volatility and the import volatility of the service sector respectively decrease more than the output volatility and export volatility of the industrial sector.