中国劳动供给曲线“向后弯曲”了吗?——来自微观调查数据的证据

Is China's Labor Supply Curve“Bending Backwards”?——Evidence from Micro-Survey Data

劳动供给结构性短缺是当前我国劳动力市场运行和经济高质量发展面临的关键问题之一。本文根据经典劳动供给理论,将劳动供给曲线与门槛计量模型进行联合再推演,利用中国劳动力动态调查微观数据探讨我国微观劳动供给情况,再现中国劳动供给曲线。研究发现,第一,总体来看,我国劳动供给曲线尚未“向后弯曲”,工资水平的提升仍然会造成劳动供给的提升,工资对劳动供给产生显著突变效应和激励效应;第二,一重工资门槛占调查对象平均工资的29.1%,二重、三重工资门槛值超过调查对象的平均工资水平,二重工资门槛超出平均工资的19.9%,而三重工资门槛则为平均工资的近两倍;第三,工资门槛的存在使得工资激励效应大致呈现倒U形曲线形态,即工资激励效应随着工资门槛的提升而先增后减;第四,女性劳动力群体和中高端服务业群体的劳动供给曲线可能出现了“向后弯曲”的现象,这部分群体一般自身收入水平较高或是家庭收入水平较高。本文研究表明,我国整体劳动供给曲线尚处于“上升”阶段,提升工资水平有助于激发我国潜在的就业和劳动供给,为缓解我国劳动力结构性短缺问题提供启示,同时有助于现阶段我国的经济高质量发展。

Structural shortage of labor supply is one of the key problems facing my country's labor market operation and high-quality economic development.Based on the classic labor supply theory,the research combines the labor supply curve with the threshold measurement model and re-derives it.Using the micro data of the China Laborforce Dynamics Survey to explore China's micro labor supply situation and reproduce the labor supply curve in China.The research found that:Firstly,overall,China's labor supply curve has not yet“bent backwards”,and the increase in wage levels will still result in an increase in labor supply,and wages will have a significant mutation effect and incentive effect on labor supply;Secondly,first-level wages the threshold accounts for 29.1%of the average salary of the survey respondents.The dual and triple salary thresholds exceed the average salary of the survey respondents,the dual salary threshold exceeds 19.9%of the average salary,and the triple salary threshold is nearly twice the average salary;Thirdly,the existence of the wage threshold makes the wage incentive effect roughly in the form of an inverted U curve,that is,the wage incentive effect first increases and then decreases as the wage threshold increases;Fourthly,the labor of female labor groups and mid-to high-end service industry The supply curve may appear“backward bending”,and this group of people generally have higher income levels or higher household income levels.The research in this paper shows that China's overall labor supply curve is still in the“rising”stage.Increasing wages will help stimulate China's potential employment and labor supply.The research in this paper provides enlightenment for alleviating the structural shortage of labor in China,and at the same time contributes to the high-quality economic development of China at this stage.