心理资本与农民长效增收

Psychological Capital and Long-term Income Increase for Farmers

本文使用历次中国家庭追踪调查数据,基于倾向得分匹配、两阶段最小二乘和分布滞后等计量方法,探讨了心理资本对农民长效增收的影响。理论分析发现:心理资本水平越高的农民,越愿意在工作中付出更多的努力,而且伴随着工作经验及资源的积累,心理资本将得到进一步强化,进而形成心理资本增强和干劲提高的良性循环,最终实现长效增收。实证结果表明,心理资本提高1个单位,将促进农民收入在未来数年间持续增长,该结论在排除内生性偏误以及各种稳健性检验下依然成立;研究还发现,1个单位心理资本在8年间的累积增收弹性约为13.4%,而且收入的增加主要来源于稳定性和持续性较强的工资性收入和经营性收入,这是长效增收的体现和保障。基于以上结论,建议政府借鉴技能培训的实践经验,联合科研力量制定针对农民的心理资本干预方案,提升农民的长效增收能力,加速乡村振兴和共同富裕进程。

Based on propensity score matching,two-stage least squares and distribution lag modle,the effects of psychological capital on the long-term increase of farmers'income were investigated using the data of Chinese Family Panel surveys.The theoretical analysis finds that the higher the level of psychological capital,the more willing farmers to pay more efforts in the work,and along with the accumulation of work experience and resources,psychological capital will be further strengthened,and then form a virtuous circle of psychological capital enhancement and motivation improvement,and finally achieve long-term income increase.The empirical results show that the increase of psychological capital by 1 unit will promote the continuous growth of farmers'income in the next few years,This conclusion is still valid under the exclusion of endogeneity bias and various robustness tests.The study also found that the cumulative income increase elasticity of a unit of psychological capital in 8 years is about 13.4%,and the income increase mainly comes from wage income and business income with strong stability and sustainability,which is the embodiment and guarantee of long-term income increase.Based on the above conclusions,it is suggested that the government draw lessons from the practical experience of skill training,and develop psychological capital intervention programs for farmers,improve the long-term income increase ability of farmers,and accelerate the process of rural revitalization and common prosperity.