经济政策不确定与稳就业——基于经营回报率视角的分解

Economic Policy Uncertainty and Employment Stabilization——Based on the Decomposition of the Rate of Operating Return

在经济下行压力增强阶段,各级政府为稳定与促进就业频繁出台系列政策,试图提高企业劳动力雇用规模。然而,由系列政策执行与变更产生的不确定性是否影响企业雇用规模、就业结构尚缺乏进一步探究。本文试图基于2007~2020年A股非金融类上市企业,从企业经营回报率视角检验经济政策不确定性对企业劳动力雇用规模的影响效应及其传导机制。实证研究表明,经济政策不确定性对劳动力雇用增长率存在抑制效应。分就业结构与产业结构研究发现,该抑制效应在管理、行政、销售岗位较多的服务业企业更突出。机制检验表明,经济政策不确定性抑制劳动力雇用规模的核心逻辑在于企业经营回报率限制效应;从劳动与资本要素分解看,具体表现为经济政策不确定性会通过劳动力回报率与资本回报率两种渠道显著抑制劳动力雇用增长率。劳动力投资效率越低,该抑制效应越强;为维持二者投入要素的回报率,企业会以降低劳动力雇用规模的方式将经济政策不确定性负向冲击转嫁给劳动者;综合两种传导渠道后发现,劳动力回报率占据主导地位。本文从企业经营回报率视角丰富劳动力就业相关研究的同时,为政府优化“稳就业”系列政策提供了经验证据。

During times of economic downturn,governments often issue policies to stabilize and promote employment,with the aim of encouraging enterprises to absorb the workforce.However,the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the employment behavior of enterprises has not been fully examined.This study aims to investigate the effect of economic policy uncertainty on the labor employment behavior of A-share non-financial listed companies between 2007 and 2020,and its underlying mechanisms.Our findings reveal that economic policy uncertainty has significantly inhibited the growth rate of labor employment,with a greater impact on enterprises with more managerial,administrative,sales positions,and service-based industries.Furthermore,our results suggest that the core mechanism behind the inhibition effect lies in the limiting effect on business returns.Economic policy uncertainty can significantly inhibit the growth rate of labor employment through two channels:return on invested labor and capital.The more inefficient the investment,the stronger the inhibition effect.To maintain the rate of returm of input factors,enterprises reduce the scale of labor employment by transferring the negative impact of economic policy uncertainty to workers.Our study provides empirical evidence for the government to optimize their“stable employment”policies and enriches research on labor employment from the perspective of enterprise operating rate of return.