高等教育财政支出、地方目标约束与人力资本积累

Higher Education Fiscal Expenditure,Local Target Constraints and Human Capital Accumulation

本文利用2000~2020年我国31个省份的面板数据,运用面板交互固定效应模型,研究了地方高等教育财政支出对人力资本积累的影响,并考察了地方政府目标约束及其偏离的调节作用。研究结果显示,高等教育财政支出与人力资本积累之间呈现显著的倒“U”形关系,且当前大部分省份位于曲线右侧;在更换人力资本积累、高等教育财政支出的衡量指标以及采用不同样本等进行稳健性检验后,上述结论仍然成立。异质性分析发现,在东部地区和城镇地区,高等教育财政支出与人力资本积累之间呈现倒“U”形关系,但在中部地区和农村地区两者表现为“U”形关系;高等教育财政支出促进了大专型和研究生型人力资本发展,但不利于本科型人力资本积累。在作用机制方面发现,合理的经济增长目标和财政收入目标预期及其偏移,能够有效抑制高等教育财政支出对人力资本积累的不利影响。根据研究结论,本文提出了科学统筹高等教育财政资金、加强农村地区高等教育支出规模、健全地方政府绩效考核与评价机制等提升人力资本积累水平的政策建议。

Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2000 to 2020 and panel data interactive fixed effects model,this paper studies the impact of local higher education fiscal expenditure on human capital accumulation,and the moderating effects of target constraints and deviations of local governments.Our results show that there is a significant inverted U-shaped relationship between higher education financial expenditure and human capital accumulation,and most provinces are currently on the right side of the curve.This finding survives several robustness checks,including using different measures for human capital accumulation and higher education financial expenditure,using different samples,etc.Heterogeneity analysis shows that this inverted U-shaped relationship holds in the eastem region and urban areas,but this relationship is significantly U-shaped in the central region and rural areas.In addition,higher education fiscal expenditure promotes the development of human capital for college and postgraduate students,but is not conducive to the human capital accumulation for undergraduates.In terms of the mechanism,we find that reasonable economic growth target,fiscal revenue target and their deviations can effectively restrain the adverse efects of higher education fiscal expenditure on human capital accumulation.Therefore,this paper puts forward policy suggestions to improve human capital accumulation,such as scientifically coordinating the financial funds for higher education,strengthening the scale of higher education expenditure for rural areas,and improving the performance assessment and evaluation system of local governments.