以业控人与经济活力:来自北京市行业面板数据的经验证据

Industry Control and Economic Vitality:Empirical Evidence from Industry Panel Data in Beijing

通过功能疏解调控特大城市人口规模是国际上通用的应对策略,但目前学界对于特大城市人口调控政策的实际效果及其经济社会影响等核心问题却依旧莫衷一是。借助于北京市产业疏解带动人口疏解政策出台的“准自然实验”,采用2012~2018年北京市服务业39个二维码行业面板数据和双重差分方法,本文首次从全要素生产率的角度,评估了人口调控政策对地区经济活力的影响效应和作用机制。研究发现,北京市“以业控人”政策将显著降低禁限产业的全要素生产率,且这种挤压效应会伴随时间的推移逐渐增强。异质性分析结果表明,“以业控人”政策的生产率冲击主要发生在生产性服务业中,而相比于限制性疏解政策,禁止性疏解政策对全要素生产率的负面影响更加显著。进一步的机制检验发现,“以业控人”政策显著提高了禁限产业的交易成本,致使相关行业的全要素生产率损失。

It’s a universal strategy to regulate the population size of megacities through functional allocation,but there is still no consensus on the actual effect of this policy.Based on the"quasi-natural experiment"of Beijing’s industrial disengagement driving population disengagement policy,this paper evaluates the impact of population control policy on regional economic vitality by using the panel data of Beijing’s service industry from 2012 to 2018 and DID method.We find that the population control policy will lead to a significant decline in Total Factor Productivity of the prohibited industries,and this squeezing effect will gradually increase over time.Heterogeneity analysis found that the productivity impact of population regulation policy mainly occurred in producer services,and the negative impact of prohibitive regulation policy on TFP was more significant than restrictive regulation policy.Further mechanism discussion found that the population control policy will significantly increase the transaction costs of the forbidden industry,resulting in the total factor productivity loss of the related industry.