高质量人力资本如何影响中国住房价格?

How Does High-quality Human Capital Affect Housing Prices in China?

人力资本是否促进住房价格上涨,对提升经济水平发展和改善民生生活至关重要。本文构建可用于政策评估的拟自然实验,采用双重差分法系统评估1999年“高校扩招”形成的人力资本扩张对城市住房价格的影响。研究发现,高质量人力资本的规模扩张促进了住房价格的上涨。机制检验表明,人力资本规模的扩张主要通过城市化、收入效应和预期效应渠道对城市住房价格产生促进作用。异质性检验发现,人力资本的住房价格上涨效应在中西部城市、公共设施较差的城市以及法治环境较弱的城市更为突出。此外,本文得到的另一个有趣发现是,经管专业领域人才对住房价格的提升效应最大,其他学科次之,自然科学与工程专业领域的人力资本扩张对城市住房价格的提升效应最弱。本文研究能够为准确理解人力资本规模扩张推动我国城市住房价格上涨的效应及作用机制提供有力的经验证据。

Human capital promotes the rise of housing prices,which is crucial for the development of economy and improvement of people’s livelihood.This paper constructs a quasi-natural experiment used for policy assessment,and evaluates the influence of human capital on urban housing prices under the impact of the"college enrollment expansion"in 1999.The research shows that the expansion of high-quality human capital promotes the rise of housing prices.Mechanism indicates that the rise of housing prices caused by the expansion of human capital is mainly through urbanization,income effect,and the promotion of expectancy effect on urban housing prices.Heterogeneity test finds that the rise of housing prices caused by human capital is more prominent in cities in central and western China,cities with poor public facilities and cities with weak legal control.Besides,interestingly,this paper finds that talents with a major in economics and management have the largest effect on housing prices,followed by other disciplines,and talents with a major in natural science and engineering the weakest.This paper could provide forceful experimental evidence to understand the effect and mechanism of human capital on the rise of urban housing prices accurately.