高考知分填报志愿对每个省份都有利吗?

The Issue of Filling Out Chinese College Entrance Examination Application after Knowing Score

高考知分填报志愿作为从"猜分填报""估分填报"逐渐改革而来的志愿填报方式,对全国整体本科录取的影响具有重要意义。知分填报政策是否提高了高考录取率?中国各省份高考知分填报政策的差异性为我们提供了一个"准自然实验",本文利用中国2005~2018省级年面板数据,采用多期双重差分法和广义双重差分法评估知分填报政策对全国整体及各省本科录取率的影响效应。研究表明:第一,高考知分填报志愿并非对全国所有省份的本科录取率均有显著的正向作用。该政策仅对211大学数量在5所及以上的8个省份有着显著的促进效应。第二,知分填报政策在2012~2018年的政策效果并不显著,政策的作用时间集中在2012年之前。第三,知分填报政策提高了高校教育资源较少省份的学生向高校资源较多省份流动的趋势。第四,实施知分填报政策的效果仍高于未实施知分填报,对于没有实施知分填报志愿的省份依然会受到其他省份政策的正外部效应而提升自己本省的本科录取率。这一发现为理解和推动中国人才选拔提供了重要的制度变革依据。

As a kind of Chinese college entrance examination application pattern gradually reformed from"guessing score filling"and"assessing score filling","knowing score filling"is of great significance to the whole undergraduate enrollment in China.Does"knowing score filling"increase the admission rate of college entrance examination?The difference in the policy of"knowing score filling"of various provinces in China provides us with a"quasi-natural experiment".This paper uses the Chinese provincial administration regions’panel date from 2005 to 2018 to evaluate the effect of the policy on the undergraduate admission rate.The research shows that,first,"knowing score filling"does not have a significant positive effect on the undergraduate admission rate of all provincial administration regions.The policy only has a significant promotion effect on 8 provincial administration regions with 5 national key universities or more.Second,the effect of the policy on subtotal reporting from 2012 to 2018 is not significant,and the effect of the policy is concentrated before the year of 2012.Third,"knowing score filling"improves the tendency of students from provincial administration regions with less educational resources to flow to provincial administration regions and cities with more resources.Fourth,the effect of the implementation of"knowing score filling"is still higher than the non-implementation.For the provinces that have not implemented the policy of"knowing score filling",they will still be subject to the positive external effect of other provincial administration regions’policies and improve the undergraduate admission rate of their own provincial administration region.This finding provides an important institutional basis for understanding and promoting Chinese talent selection.