产业结构、人力资本对我国全要素生产率影响研究

The Research on the Influence of Industrial Structure and Human Capital to Total Factor Productivity in China

为推动经济高质量发展,党的十九大明确提出了提高全要素生产率的要求。本文将产业结构和人力资本纳入同一体系,利用中国2000~2017年31个地区的面板数据,研究两者对全要素生产率的影响。研究发现,第一,从TFP指数看,不同处理方式下所得变动趋势基本不变,考虑劳动力异质性后所得数值有所降低。从TFP分解指标来看增长主要靠技术进步推动。第二,产业结构升级与人力资本存量提升都是提高TFP的显著因素,且产业结构对TFP的影响在一定程度上受人力资本存量水平的正向调节,影响在地区之间存在差异。第三,产业结构表现出基于人力资本的"门槛"效应特征,在低于第三门槛时,人力资本存量程度越高,产业结构对TFP的正向影响越大,高于第三门槛后有所回落,且在将人力资本指标以人均受教育程度作替换后结论不变。由此提出相应的政策建议。

To promote high-quality economic development,the 19 th National Congress clearly put forward the requirement of improving total factor productivity(TFP).This paper using the panel data of 31 regions in China from 2000 to 2017,brought both industry structure and human capital into one system to study their impact on total factor productivity.First,it is found that trend under different treatment methods is unchanged from the TFP index,and the value obtained after considering the heterogeneity of labor force decreases.According to TFP decomposition index,the growth is mainly driven by technological progress.Second,the upgrade of industrial structure and the improvement of human capital stock are both significant factors to improve TFP,and the influence of industrial structure on TFP is positively moderated by the level of human capital stock to a certain extent.These relationships are diffe rent among regions.Third,the industrial structure shows"threshold"effect based on human capital.When it is lower than the third threshold,the higher the stock level of human capital,the greater the positive impact of industrial structure on TFP.And falls back after it is higher than the third threshold.These findings are robust after replacing the human capital index with the per capita education level.Based on these results,policy suggestions are listed in the end.