我国青年的婚育行为研究

A Study on the Factors of Preference of Marriage and Childbearing Behavior of Chinese Youth

本文基于Becker婚育行为的经济分析理论框架并使用CGSS面板数据研究我国18~35岁青年的婚育行为。结果发现,2005~2015年青年初婚率、生育率和平均子女数量明显减少,初婚年龄不断增大,东部地区青年的晚婚晚育问题尤为突出。面板logit模型和Tobit模型回归结果表明:自有住房与住房面积对青年(尤其男性)婚育行为影响显著;人力资本积累能够促进青年婚育;体态特征对男性青年的婚育行为影响显著,但对女性青年影响不大;代际因素具有显著的负向影响,父亲学历层次的提高将造成青年晚婚晚育;婚育行为的城乡差异和地区差异明显;随着家庭概念在青年思想观念中逐渐淡化,晚婚晚育现象将不断增多。

This paper uses CGSS panel data to study the marriage and childbearing decisions of 18~35 year old youth in China,which is based on the theoretical framework of Becker’s economic analysis.The results show that the first marriage rate,the fertility rate and the average number of children in the 2005~2015 years of our young people are obviously reduced,the age of first marriage is increasing,and the late marriage and late childbearing problem of the young people in the eastern region,especially the women,is the most prominent.The regression results of the panel Logit model and Tobit model show that housing is the material basis for young people’s marriage and childbearing behavior,and the ownership of the house and the housing area have a positive impact on the marriage and childbearing behavior of young people,especially for men.The accumulation of human capital can promote the marriage and childbearing behavior,but education will delay the time of entering the marriage market and increase the age of first marriage.Body characteristics have significant effects on the marriage and childbearing behavior of young men,but have little effect on female.Inter-generational factors have a significant negative impact,and the improvement of fathers’ educational level will result in late marriage and late childbirth.The difference between urban-rural and regional areas is obvious.At the same time,with the gradual weakening of family concept in the youth’s ideology,the phenomenon of late marriage and late childbirth will continue to increase.