京津冀三地就业竞争与互补关系研究

A Study on the Competitive and Complementary Relation of Employment among Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei

作为中国经济发展的重要一极,京津冀经济圈内部迄今仍然存在相对显著的区域差异。向量误差修正模型的分析结果表明,造成这种局面的重要原因是京津冀三地行政级差带来的发展激励次序偏差,经济圈中京津冀三地传统的北京、天津、河北的激励次序在现阶段应该以北京、天津反哺河北为主。基于上述判断,本文进一步改进了耦合度模型,并测算了传统激励次序状态下的三地就业耦合度与北京、天津反哺河北的反事实状态下的三地就业耦合度。通过比较静态分析我们发现,京津反哺河北的反事实状态下三地的就业耦合度在一定范围内有所提升,京津同时反哺河北优于京、津单纯一地对河北的反哺,并且在京津两地同时反哺河北的过程中二者反哺量的比例影响三地整体的就业耦合度。在政策建议取向上,提高三地整体就业的耦合度不仅对北京和天津反哺河北的总量有所要求,同时对内在的反哺比例也有所要求。

As an important pole of Chinese economic development,there are still relatively notable regional differences within the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei economic circle.The analysis results of the VECM show that one of the important reasons for this situation is the deviation of the development incentive order caused by the administrative difference among Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei.The traditional incentive order of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei should be replaced by that of Beijing and Tianjin feeding Hebei.Based on the above judgments,this paper further improves the coupling degree model,and estimates the coupling degree of employment in the three places under the traditional incentive order state and under the counterfactual state of Beijing and Tianjin feeding Hebei.Through comparative static analysis,we find that the employment coupling degree under the counter-factual state of feeding Hebei has been improved in a certain range.Beijing and Tianjin co-feeding Hebei is better than Beijing or Tianjin independently feeding Hebei.In the process of Beijing and Tianjin simultaneously feeding Hebei,the proportion of feeding between Beijing and Tianjin affects the overall employment coupling degree of the three regions.In terms of policy recommendations,improving the overall employment coupling degree of the three regions requires not only the total amount of feeding of Hebei by Beijing and Tianjin,but also the internal feeding ratio.