空气污染如何抑制了经济增长——基于劳动力迁移视角的解释

How Air Pollution Inhibits Economic Growth: An Interpretation from the Perspective of Labor Migration

对空气污染与经济增长关系的认知偏差,导致了地方政府治理空气污染的内在激励不足,进而对空气污染的长效治理形成了挑战。虽然越来越多的证据表明空气污染可能会制约经济增长,但证据分散和论证不足导致这一观点并未受到地方政府重视。为了证实这一观点,提升政府治污的主观意愿,本文从劳动力迁移视角出发,采用中介效应模型和调节中介效应模型检验了空气污染影响经济增长的劳动力迁移机制,及该机制中的环境规制调节和协同集聚调节作用。结果表明:第一,空气污染能够显著抑制经济增长,而且这一作用可以通过劳动力迁移机制来传导;第二,环境规制一方面会抑制劳动力迁出,促进经济增长,另一方面还会在与空气污染的交互作用下促进劳动力迁出,抑制经济增长;第三,协同集聚和劳动力迁入的交互作用有利于经济增长,但由于空气污染对劳动力迁入的抑制效应,在协同集聚程度更高的地区,空气污染的经济损失反而更大。这些结论对区域可持续发展具有重要启示:首先,环境质量和经济增长之间并非此消彼长的关系,二者可以共赢;其次,劳动力因污染而迁移的机制是缓解地区发展差距的重要突破口;最后,环境规制对劳动力迁移机制的调节意味着政府治理污染应该当机立断、重拳出击。

A biased view on air pollution and economic growth leads to a lack of intrinsic incentives for local governments to control air pollution, which in turn poses a challenge to long-term control of air pollution. Given the fragmentary evidence and insufficient argument on air pollution inhibiting economic growth, this paper uses a mediation model to examine the air pollution effect on economic growth through a labor migration perspective. The findings include, first, air pollution can significantly inhibit economic growth, and this effect can be transmitted through labor migration mechanisms. Second, environmental regulations can reduce labor outflow and promote economic growth, but the effect can be narrowed by severe air pollution. Third, the interaction between co-agglomeration and labor migration is beneficial to economic growth, but due to the inhibiting effect of air pollution on labor migration, the economic loss of air pollution in regions with higher degree of co-agglomeration is greater. These conclusions have important implications for regional sustainable development. First, there is no trade-off between environmental quality and economic growth. Second, the labor migration due to air pollution is an important breakthrough to alleviate the regional development gap. Finally, the moderating effect of environmental regulation on labor migration mechanism suggests that the government should make an immediate decision on pollution control.