尾矿库多灾种致灾风险评估体系

Multi-disaster risk assessment system of tailings pond

为了提高尾矿库风险评估的准确性,以广东省某尾矿库为研究对象,基于尾矿库4种典型的灾害类型,即地震灾害、洪水灾害、滑坡灾害、泥石流灾害,采用数值计算、调洪演算、泥石流预警值判断模型,建立尾矿库多灾种致灾风险评估体系,并开展应用。研究结果表明:该尾矿坝在地震、洪水、滑坡、泥石流作用下能保持安全,致灾风险低;多灾种致灾风险评估体系能模拟复杂的物理过程和现象,准确高效计算出结果,并直观揭示最不利情况。研究结果可为尾矿库的设计、运营和风险管理提供参考。

In order to enhance the accuracy of risk assessment for tailings ponds,taking a tailings pond in Guangdong province as the research object,a multi-disaster risk assessment system of tailings pond based on four typical disaster types of tailings pond,namely earthquake disaster,flood disaster,landslide disaster and debris flow disaster,was established and applied by numerical calculation,flood regulation calculation and debris flow early warning value judgment model.The results show that the tailings dam can keep safe under the effect of earthquake,flood,landslide and debris flow,and the risk of disaster is low.The multi-disaster risk assessment system can simulate complex physical processes and phenomena,accurately and efficiently calculate the results,and intuitively reveal the most unfavorable conditions.The research results can provide reference for the design,operation and risk management of tailings ponds.