基于系统动力学的海外EPC工程风险评估研究——以乍得拉尼亚油田建设EPC工程项目为例

Risk assessment on overseas EPC project based on system dynamics——Taking EPC project in Chadian Lanea oilfield as a case study

在管理海外EPC工程项目时,为了使管理者能够更加正确地识别风险、评估风险,进而应对并控制风险,以乍得拉尼亚油田建设EPC工程项目为研究案例,基于系统动力学对该项目的风险评估进行研究。首先采用文献调研法和专家问卷调查法对该工程项目进行初步风险识别以获取风险清单,进而运用系统动力学建立该风险识别模型,对该工程项目中已识别出的各个风险进行根源因素识别和后果识别;其次在风险评估阶段,以成本风险为目标风险,建立风险评估流程图;最后通过专家问卷打分法确定各个边界点风险的风险值,建立系统动力学风险评估模型,通过风险评估模型运行复合仿真模拟对不同的风险进行评估。结果表明:系统动力学在海外EPC工程项目风险管理中各个阶段均具备较好的适用性,可作为传统的风险管理方法的补充,同时在社会安全风险管理领域中具备一定的适用性。

In order to correctly identify,assess and control the risks in the management of overseas Engineering Procurement Construction(EPC)projects,this paper takes the construction of the EPC project of Chadian Lanea oilfield as a case study,and studies the risk assessment of the project based on system dynamics.First of all,to obtain the preliminary risk list,a preliminary risk identification of the project was carried out through literature research and expert questionnaire survey.Then,a risk identification model was established using system dynamics to identify the causes and consequences of the risks identified in the project.Secondly,a risk assessment flow chart was established by taking the cost risk as the target risk in the stage of risk assessment.Finally,the value of risk at each boundary point was determined by the expert questionnaire scoring method.Thus,the system dynamics risk assessment model was established,which could assess different risks by running the composite simulation.The results show that system dynamics had a good applicability in the risk management at all stages of overseas EPC project.It can be used as a supplement to traditional risk management methods.System dynamics also applicable to the field of social security risk management.