人员密集场所紧急疏散风险模型研究

Modelling analysis on risk of emergency evacuation of crowded places

为了定量描述人群疏散过程中的风险,采取有效措施对场所进行安全管控,建立了密集人群疏散风险分析模型。模型中将疏散过程中的人群密度、路径宽度、路径长度作为研究重点,分析得出疏散风险值与路径长度、宽度、人群密度的定量关系,并在实验室条件下对模型的结果进行验证。结果表明:疏散过程中的密度参量对疏散风险的影响较大,当疏散路径较短时,增加疏散路径的宽度将明显降低疏散风险。

An evacuation risk analysis model has been established in the present paper to quantitatively describe the risk in the process of crowd evacuation and take effective measures to control the safety of the site.The model puts population density,width and length of path condition during evacuation to key point of research and gives the quantitative relationship of evacuation risk value with path length,width and population density,and the results of the model are verified under laboratory condition.The result shows that the density parameter in the process of evacuation has a great influence on the evacuation risk.When the evacuation path is short,increasing the width of the evacuation path will obviously reduce the evacuation risk value.