核均势视角下的印巴常规冲突研究

Nuclear Parity and Conventional Military Conflict in India-Pakistan Relations

自1998年各自进行核试验并宣布拥有核武器以来,印度和巴基斯坦两国时有爆发小规模常规军事冲突,印巴成为全球两个实际拥有核武器国家之间时常爆发常规冲突的唯一案例。战略学界对核均势与常规冲突关系的传统研究理论以及基于印度核政策的解读都无法解释印巴两个核国家间常规冲突不断的原因。实际上,在核均势背景下印巴两国常规军事冲突发生的原因与两国的核"红线"有关,印巴两国各自使用核武器的"红线"框定出了核"红区"。领土争端等问题导致两国不断发生军事冲突,但在核"红区"内,两国又控制着冲突的烈度和强度,避免常规军事冲突发酵升级。然而严重对抗的安全竞争态势难以对突发危机实现理性且有效的管控,南亚地区爆发冲突甚至升级为核冲突的可能性仍存在,因此在地缘、领土、民族问题混杂的局面下管控危机对南亚安全具有重要意义。

Since their respective nuclear tests and emergence as nuclear states in 1998,India and Pakistan have routinely engaged in conventional military conflict.This makes them the only dyad of states on the planet with nuclear capabilities that regularly face off in conventional warfare.Based on their reading of India’s nuclear policy,scholars of strategic studies are not able to use traditional theories of the relationship between nuclear parity and conventional warfare to explain why two nuclear states of Pakistan and India repeatedly face off in conventional warfare.In reality,the reason that India and Pakistan still engage in conventional warfare despite having achieved nuclear parity is that the two states maintain a nuclear"red zone",i.e.,a redline for using nuclear weapons.Territorial disputes cause military conflict to break out regularly between the two states,but within the nuclear"red zone"the two states control the intensity of the conflict and prevent an escalation beyond conventional warfare.That said,it is difficult to ensure effective and rational control of crisis situations given the confrontational nature of the security situation.As such,prospects for violent conflict in South Asia,and even an escalation to nuclear conflict remain.Consider the region’s complex geo-strategic,territorial and nationalistic challenges,it is critical that South Asia effectively manage and control crises.