粤港澳大湾区城市群生产率的测度及特征研究

Measurement, decomposition and characteristics of total factor productivity growth in Guangdong-Hong kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

本文利用包含两类技术进步的生产函数构建全要素生产率增长的分解框架,得出技术进步方向和要素生产效率共同组成了全要素生产率增长。在此基础上,采用标准化供给系统方法测度1996-2016年粤港澳大湾区城市群的全要素生产率增长,其结果显示:在湾区城市群内部,资本与劳动是替代的,并且样本期内大部分年份的技术进步偏向劳动,这从根本上解释了珠三角地区普遍性的"用工荒"问题;劳动增强型技术进步率是湾区生产率提升的关键,而劳动偏向型技术进步对其却有抑制作用;近些年大湾区城市群的全要素生产率持续下降,表现出对其经济发展的贡献度也明显下降。因此,要改变粤港澳大湾区现有经济发展瓶颈,必需调整技术结构,大力引进发达国家资本与资本偏向型技术进步;同时,整合粤港澳三地互补的资源优势,实现大湾区"研发创新→加工制造→配套服务"的完整化产业链条,进而提升全要素生产率增长。

This paper uses CES production function to construct the decomposition framework of TFP growth, and draws the conclusion that TFP growth is composed of technical progress bias and factor production efficiency. Using standardized supply system on this basis, the method to measure a large bay area of Guangdong in 1996-2016 total factor productivity growth of the cities, the results showed that within a large bay area of Guangdong urban agglomeration, capital and labor is irreplaceable, and most of the sample period years technical progress towards work, fundamentally explain the universality in the pearl river delta "labor shortage" problem;The labor-enhanced technological progress rate is the key to the total factor productivity improvement in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao greater bay area. In recent years, the total factor productivity of urban agglomerations in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao greater bay area has been declining continuously, indicating that the contribution to its economic development has also decreased significantly. Therefore, in order to change the bottleneck of economic development in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao greater bay area, it is necessary to adjust the technological structure and vigorously introduce capital and capital-oriented technological progress from developed countries. At the same time, integrate the complementary resource advantages of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao, realize the complete industrial chain of "R&D and innovation, processing and manufacturing, and supporting services" in the greater bay area, and further enhance the growth of total factor productivity.