金融发展促进产业结构升级的非线性影响

The non-linear effect of financial development on promoting industrial structure upgrading

金融发展在不同维度对产业结构升级的影响存在着明显差异。本文首先基于多部门内生增长模型和修正后的AK模型,嵌入金融发展的非线性影响机理,构建数理模型对金融发展对产业结构升级的影响机制进行探讨。其次在功能演化视角下,从金融规模和金融效率两个维度,结合2004-2016年中国30个省份面板数据,运用面板平滑转换回归模型(PSTR)实证检验了金融发展与产业结构升级的非线性连续影响关系,结果发现:(1)金融规模与产业结构升级的关系表现为明显的先递增后递减,而金融效率的提高对产业结构升级存在正向促进影响;(2)金融规模、金融效率对产业结构升级的影响存在显著的区域差异。西部地区金融规模、金融效率的提高均促进产业结构升级;中部地区金融规模与产业结构表现为先抑制后促进的影响关系,金融效率的促进效应则不明显;东部地区金融规模的过度扩张一定程度上抑制了产业结构优化,提高金融效率成为突破金融规模瓶颈促进产业结构升级的重要手段。

There are significant differences in the impact of financial development on the upgrading of industrial structure in different dimensions. based on the multi-sector endogenous growth model and the revised AK model, this paper constructs the mathematical model embedding the nonlinear influence mechanism of financial development to explore the mechanism of financial development on the upgrading of industrial structure firstly. Secondly, In the perspective of functional evolution, from the two dimensions of financial scale and financial efficiency and combining with panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2004 to 2016, the paper uses the Panel smooth transition regression model(PSTR) to test the nonlinear continuous influence relationship of financial development on industrial structure upgrading. The empirical results found that:(1) There is a clear first-increment and post-reduction relationship between the financial scale and the upgrading of industrial structure, and the improvement of financial efficiency has a positive impact on the upgrading of industrial structure;(2) There are significant regional differences in the impact of financial scale and financial efficiency on industrial structure. The financial scale and financial efficiency of the western region have a promoting effect on the upgrading of industrial structure;The relationship between the financial scale and the industrial structure in the central region is characterized by first suppression and promotion, and the promotion effect of financial efficiency is not obvious;The excessive expansion of the financial scale in the eastern region has restrained the optimization of industrial structure to a certain extent, and improving financial efficiency has become an important means to break through the bottleneck of the financial scale and promote the upgrading of industrial structure.