论语境在因果反事实分析中的作用

On the Function of Context in the Counterfactual Analysis of Causation

刘易斯的因果反事实分析框架逐渐形塑了当代形而上学中的因果分析的普遍结构。然而,基于这一框架的实例分析往往会引发孟席斯所说的“原因增殖难题”。这一难题十分明显地体现在案例的语境对反事实分析之施用所产生的影响上。所以,反事实分析理论需要解释语境在反事实分析中所起的作用,并据此为反事实分析制定明晰且合适的约束规则。一些学者已围绕语境依赖问题中的两个关键要素——因果对照项和因果关系项——给出了自己的解释方案,但这些方案都有些许缺陷。我们可以基于保罗的表观模型为因果反事实分析的语境依赖问题提供一个统合性的回答。

Lewis’framework of the counterfactual analysis of causation has gradually shaped the general structure of causal analysis in contemporary metaphysics.However,the counterfactual analysis of some actual cases based on this framework often leads to what Menzies calls“the problem of profligate causes”.This problem is clearly reflected by the influence of the contexts of the cases on the application of counterfactual analysis.Therefore,the counterfactual analysis theory needs to explain the role of context in counterfactual analysis and formulate explicit and appropriate constraints for counterfactual analysis.Some philosophers have proposed their own explanations around the two key factors of context-dependent problem,i.e.,causal contrasts and causal relata.We can provide a comprehensive answer to the context-dependent problem of causal counterfactual analysis based on Paul’s aspect model.