增值税留抵退税政策的劳动雇佣效应——基于2018年财税70号文的证据

The Refund of Term-end VAT Policy Effects on Employment——Evidence on No.70 Fiscal and Tax Notification in 2018

如何刺激企业维持、增加雇佣以稳定就业长期以来是各级政府重要而艰难的课题。本文关注未抵扣增值税进项税额所形成的资金占用对企业雇佣决策的影响。基于2018年颁布的增值税留抵退税政策即财税70号文,研究发现,受税收政策影响的公司随后年份中劳动雇佣人数显著增加,尽管员工总体薪酬水平大幅上涨,但是没有显著提高员工平均工资水平,体现当前微观经济主体对资金运用的谨慎态度。渠道检验发现融资约束缓解是增值税留抵退税政策发挥雇员刺激效应的重要机制。上述雇员刺激效应在处于区域市场化程度高的地区的企业中更显著。进一步分析发现,增值税留抵退税政策对高成本劳动力投资的影响并不显著,但是政策效应存在于不同职能类型的员工当中,此外资本劳动结构没有因为政策实施而显著改变。本文结果表明增值税固有的征收方式所形成的资金占用会对企业劳动雇佣产生重大负面影响,改善增值税扣缴方式以减少资金占用应该成为常态的解决对策。

This paper studies the refund of term-end VAT policy effects on employment decisions.The DID test based on No.70 fiscal and tax notification in 2018 shows that the test sample companies have significantly improved the employment and total compensation after the policy promulgation compared to the control sample,but the average compensation is not influenced.The channel test finds that the alleviation of financial constraints is an important mechanism.The above employee stimulation effect is more significant in enterprises in higher degree of marketization regions.Further test finds that the impact of the VAT rebate policy on high-cost labor investment is not significant,but the policy effect exists among different functional employees.In addition,the capital-labor structure has not changed significantly as a result of the policy.Our paper shows that the capital occupation formed by the input VAT has an obvious negative impact on employment.